Toronto: With the Canadian election less than 48 hours away, it is increasingly evident that voters are favouring leadership, specifically Prime Minister Mark Carney, over partisan party support.
In a survey published on Saturday, the non-profit, non-partisan Angus Reid Institute (ARI) underscored this point. Overall, the ruling party is leading with 44% backing as against 40% for the opposition Conservatives. However, it noted, “Also notable, the extent to which leadership – not party choice – has driven this campaign. Consider that when respondents were asked to consider how they’d vote if party, and not leader, were the deciding factor, electoral math is rearranged. Under such a scenario, the Conservative Party of Canada would hold its vote at 40%, but the Liberals would drop to just 28%.”
In effect, Carney is outpolling his party by 16 percentage points. Without his presence, the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, may have coasted to a majority victory.
However, at is stands, it will be the ruling Liberals who are poised to form a majority government once the ballots are tallied on Monday night.
“Mark Carney seems to be sort of the man of the hour. He’s definitely got a resume that Canadians seem to have responded to. It was almost like it’s almost perfect, the skill set that he brings to this to this debate, being a former Bank of Canada governor, former Bank of England governor,” University of Toronto professor of political science Andrew McDougall said.
The election is being held under the shadow of the threats from the Administration of US President Donald Trump. That has played into Carney’s strengths.
The short period Carney has been in federal politics, having entered just this January for the Liberal Party leadership race, has ensured he has not been faced the level of scrutiny others usually do. He has also not made any blunders, in the debates or on the campaign trail. “He hasn’t had any major gaffes. The expectation is that he’s going to form a government which is quite a turnaround from where we were a couple of months ago,” McDougall added.
{{/usCountry}}The short period Carney has been in federal politics, having entered just this January for the Liberal Party leadership race, has ensured he has not been faced the level of scrutiny others usually do. He has also not made any blunders, in the debates or on the campaign trail. “He hasn’t had any major gaffes. The expectation is that he’s going to form a government which is quite a turnaround from where we were a couple of months ago,” McDougall added.
{{/usCountry}}In December, under then PM Justin Trudeau, the Liberals trailed the Conservatives by over 20 points and seemed headed towards a historic defeat.
That Carney may be headed towards leading a majority government is indicated by the signals from advance polling. According to Elections Canada, over 7.3 million Canadians voted early. As per ARI data, 46% of them support the ruling party, a 12-point advantage over the Conservatives.