Ukraine’s presidency on Sunday insisted the chance of resolving soaring tensions with Russia through diplomacy remained greater than that of an attack, after the US warned Moscow had stepped up preparations for an invasion.
US officials said the Kremlin has assembled 110,000 troops along the border with its pro-Western neighbour but intelligence assessments have not determined if President Vladimir Putin has actually decided to invade.
US officials briefed Congress and European allies in recent days that the Russian force amassed on the frontier is growing at a rate that would give Putin the firepower he needs for a full-scale invasion - some 150,000 soldiers - by mid-February.
They said Putin wants all possible options at his disposal: from a limited campaign in the pro-Russian Donbas region of Ukraine to a full-scale invasion.
{{/usCountry}}They said Putin wants all possible options at his disposal: from a limited campaign in the pro-Russian Donbas region of Ukraine to a full-scale invasion.
{{/usCountry}}Russia denies that it is planning an incursion into Ukraine.
Ukrainian presidency adviser Mikhailo Podolyak insisted that “the chance of finding a diplomatic solution for de-escalation is still substantially higher than the threat of further escalation”.
Kiev has consistently sought to play down fears of an imminent attack as it tries to avoid inflicting further harm on its struggling economy.
Podolyak said the latest Russian moves were “no surprise” as Moscow has sought to keep up “psychological pressure” on Kiev by conducting large-scale troop rotations, manoeuvres and weapon deployments on a regular basis since massing forces at the border last spring.
Diplomatic push
The stark warnings from the US - part of a deliberate attempt from Washington to pre-empt any Russian actions - come as Europe pushes to defuse the crisis. French President Emmanuel Macron is heading to Moscow on Monday and Kiev the day after for talks aimed at de-escalating the crisis and pushing forward a stalled peace plan for the festering conflict with Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will also visit the region for talks with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the following week in a bid to further the diplomatic efforts.
Ukraine invasion could come ‘any day’
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday that Russia could invade Ukraine “any day”, launching a conflict that would come at an “enormous human cost”.
The senior adviser to President Joe Biden offered another stark warning the day after US officials confirmed that Russia has assembled at least 70% of the military firepower it likely intends to have in place by mid-month to give Putin the option of launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
US officials said if Moscow does opt for a full-scale attack, the invading force could take the capital Kiev and topple Zelensky in a matter of 48 hours.
They estimated such an attack would leave 25,000 to 50,000 civilians dead, along with 5,000 to 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 3,000 to 10,000 Russian ones.
It could also trigger a refugee flood of one to five million people, mainly into Poland, the officials added.
US airborne infantry troops in Poland
Elite US troops and equipment landed on Sunday in southeastern Poland near the border with Ukraine on President Joe Biden’s orders to deploy 1,700 soldiers there amid fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Hundreds more infantry troops of the 82nd Airborne Division are still expected to arrive at the Rzeszow-Jasionka airport. A US Army Boeing C-17 Globemaster plane brought a few dozen troops and vehicles.
Their commander is Maj Gen Christopher Donahue, who on August 30 was the last American soldier to leave Afghanistan. “Our national contribution here in Poland shows our solidarity with all of our allies here in Europe and, obviously, during this period of uncertainty we know that we are stronger together,” Donahue said.
Germany open to boost troops in Baltic states
Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Sunday told the ARD broadcaster that Germany was prepared to send extra troops to the Baltic states, ahead of a key trip to Washington where he will seek to bolster his influence in the Ukraine crisis.
Germany leads a Nato operation in Lithuania and has around 500 soldiers stationed there.
Asked whether Washington saw Germany as the “weakest link” in Nato, Scholz replied: “That is a false impression that does not prevail in Washington either.”