Dollar Jumps, dragging Peso to Loonie on renewed Trump's tariff threat
The dollar rebounded strongly as Trump’s tariff threats dampened wagers that his TS pick would soften the blow from the administration’s trade policies.
The dollar rebounded strongly as President-elect Donald Trump’s fresh tariff threats dampened wagers that his Treasury Secretary pick would soften the blow from the administration’s trade policies.
Bloomberg’s dollar gauge rose 0.3%, paring some of Monday’s gains, and the offshore yuan slumped to a four month low after Trump said he would impose an extra 10% tariffs on goods from China. He also vowed to enact 25% tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada, sending their respective currencies tumbling around 1% each.
While Trump campaigned on pledges to impose tariffs on US imports, his comments are the first since his election victory, signaling his resolve to follow through. Investors were also caught off guard as Scott Bessent’s nomination for the top Treasury job had prompted them to price in a more gradual approach to trade restrictions.
“Risk sentiment is getting crushed for now on Trump’s tariff risks — the dollar is being viewed as a haven and the affected nations’ currencies like the Mexican peso are getting hammered,” said Mingze Wu, currency trader at StoneX Financial. “This may just be a taste of what’s to come.”
Trump’s posts on his Truth Social platform also served a reminder for investors of the volatility his comments can cause. His comments on social media during his first term as the US President often triggered sudden market swings, upending the work and sleep schedules of investors across the globe.
On Monday, Trump said in posts that China had failed to follow through on promises to institute the death penalty for traffickers of fentanyl, writing that “drugs are pouring into our Country, mostly through Mexico, at levels never seen before.”
“Buckle up,” said Benito Berber, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis. “Trump will likely want something from Mexico and — while investors were expecting a big threat from Trump — the currency should take a big hit.”
The US currency gained against everything but the yen in early Asian trading Tuesday. Treasury 10-year yields edged up one basis point to 4.28% on Tuesday after dropping 13 basis points in the last session.
Cautious Positioning
Prospects for possible stiff tariffs had traders already turning more cautious on currencies of the US’ trading partners.
Asset managers have been dismantling bullish bets on the Mexican peso, while leveraged funds turned bearish on the currency, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for the week through Nov. 19. Hedge funds and asset managers were also pessimistic on the loonie during the same period.
“The impact from the Bessent appointment was overestimated by traders,” said Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. “Even if Bessent tries to handle the deficit, Trump in the end has ultimate power to impact the US’ fiscal situation — it’ll be a volatile four years for global assets.”
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