Iowa Caucus 2024: How will GOP’s first contest shape US presidential elections?
Iowa Caucus 2024: Iowa is a turning point for Republican contenders who have been fighting for months to unseat incumbent President Joe Biden.
On January 15, Monday, Iowa voters will brave below-freezing wind chills to assemble in community centres, churches, and school gyms to deliberate on their preferred candidate for the next United States president.
Iowa caucus is the Republican presidential primary's first voting round.
Iowa is a turning point for Republican contenders who have been fighting for months to unseat incumbent President Joe Biden. It might give contenders the boost they require to fight the Republican front-runner and former president Donald Trump in the polls. On the other hand, it might strengthen Trump's hold on the Republican base and pave the way for him to win the nomination.
What is caucus and why are Iowa caucuses important?
A caucus is an in-person gathering of people to work together on a specific issue. It is basically a presidential election event when voters cast their ballots after giving and hearing speeches about several candidates.
In contrast to primaries, caucuses are managed by political parties, not the government. For Republicans, each campaign will have a representative, additionally known as a precinct/caucus captain, to deliver a brief speech endorsing their nominee. After that, paper ballots will be given to voters to stamp their choice. The precinct results will be announced and submitted to the Republican Party of Iowa.
Iowa is a useful indicator of the strength of a candidate's voter base because of the logistical challenges involved in the caucus.
More concretely, each candidate's share of Iowa's 40 delegates is decided by the outcome of the caucuses. However, Iowa only contributes a tiny number of delegates to the national contest, therefore a contender may not always prioritise winning the state in terms of delegates.
Rather, Iowa, which has been more determinant of Democratic presidential nominees than Republicans, is primarily about going far beyond expectations so that a challenger can spin a narrative of momentum for the other candidates. The results help voters to assess a candidate's viability on the national stage.
Why does Iowa get to go first?
"Iowa got its spot by historical accident," as per New York Times.
Democrats sought to give the electorate greater control over selecting the nominee in response to the violent and divisive 1968 Chicago convention. The first of these contests was accidentally scheduled in 1972 by Iowa Democrats. Republicans in Iowa followed the suit after four years and Jimmy Carter unexpectedly emerged victorious in the Democratic caucus, securing the nomination and keys to the White House.
“The power of going first thus clearly demonstrated,” the Times said, “the Iowa legislature passed a law requiring the state to continue scheduling its caucuses before any others.”
Does Iowa winning matter?
While securing a win in the state isn't precondition to clinching the Republican party nomination, leading at the top could provide a campaign with the necessary impetus to continue in the White House race. Out of the 1,215 delegates required to secure the nomination, just 40 are at stake.
“The thing about Iowa is that we don't say that we're the kingmaker. What we say is that we separate the contenders from the pretenders,” Tim Hagle, associate political science professor at the University of Iowa, told CBS News. “What our job is to do is to vet those candidates. And the caucus process, as much as a lot of the attention is going to be on what happens this coming Monday, this process has been going on for over a year.”
Who are on the ballot?
Candidates must register on state Iowa polling or have a campaign presence in the state in order to be eligible to appear on the Iowa Republican presidential preference ballot in 2024. According to a spokeswoman from the Republican Party of Iowa, Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson and pastor Ryan Binkley will be on the ballot.
Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, will also be on the ballot after withdrawing from the contest on Wednesday.
Who can participate in 2024 Iowa GOP caucuses?
Residents of Iowa -- who are at least 18-year-old or who will turn eighteen before the general election in November -- are eligible to caucus. A citizen must be a registered Republican voter or be prepared to register as one on caucus night in order to take part in the Iowa GOP caucuses in 2024.
A non-registered Republican may alter their allegiance up to caucus night if Democrats or independents wish to take part in the GOP caucuses.
Which contenders are leading?
Despite visiting all 99 counties twice, Ramaswamy is still polling in the single digits. Trump hasn't spent as much time campaigning in Iowa as his primary competitors, but he still holds a significant lead.
Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida has been traveling to all 99 counties in order to complete a “full Grassley”. Nikki Haley has invested more in New Hampshire, the country's second primary, and less in Iowa.
Asa Hutchinson, the former governor of Arkansas, is polling in Iowa at about 1%, which means there is not much anticipation for him to surpass.
Here's when will Iowa caucuses begin
Officially, both caucuses will start at 7 pm CT. A few hours prior to the polls, voters will probably start to trickle into their caucus locations, with doors opening at 5 pm. The caucuses are anticipated to last for one hour before the counting of votes begin. If everything goes according to plan, the results will be out before midnight.