President Donald Trump and Senate Democrats are hurtling toward another government shutdown and a defining election-year clash after federal agents killed a US citizen in Minneapolis this weekend.
The fatal shooting of Alex Pretti by Border Patrol agents on Saturday quickly led to a Senate Democratic revolt against funding the Department of Homeland Security without new safeguards. Funding for several other agencies, including Defense, Health and Human Services, Labor, Treasury and Education, could become a casualty of the dispute as a Jan. 30 funding deadline nears.
Democrats are fueled by anger over what they see as another unjustified killing — the second shooting death of a US citizen this month in Minnesota — backed by an administration that quickly and without evidence labeled Pretti, an ICU nurse at a veterans’ hospital, a domestic terrorist.
A shutdown could be prolonged but it would have little practical effect on Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the Border Patrol, which received massive funding in Trump’s tax bill last year.
Still, it’s the strongest legislative tactic out-of-power Democrats have at their disposal in Trump’s Washington.
Democrats failed to leverage the 43-day autumn government shutdown to secure an extension of Obamacare subsidies but were still able to put the White House and Republicans on the defensive on affordability and the economy.
And while illegal migration has historically been among the strongest issues for Republicans, polls showed a broad majority of Americans disapproving of how ICE is handling enforcement, even before the latest killing over the weekend.
{{/usCountry}}And while illegal migration has historically been among the strongest issues for Republicans, polls showed a broad majority of Americans disapproving of how ICE is handling enforcement, even before the latest killing over the weekend.
{{/usCountry}}A shutdown would have widespread effects, from potential delays at the Internal Revenue Service as tax season starts to delays in producing key government economic data.
Deescalation Effort
Trump moved Monday to send his border czar, Tom Homan, to Minnesota and suggested he would help deescalate tensions in the city, where protesters and immigration agents have clashed for weeks.
In a subsequent social media post, Trump said he discussed the decision with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, a Democrat who has been highly critical of the administration’s enforcement surge in his state. The president said Walz was “happy” with Homan’s deployment.
“This is a positive development — one that I hope leads to turning down the temperature and restoring order in Minnesota,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who did not weigh in this weekend on the killing, said Monday on X.
Some Republican senators have called for an impartial investigation into the incident, while one of the leading GOP candidates in Minnesota’s gubernatorial race, Chris Madel, dropped out, citing the party’s embrace of “unconstitutional” measures and the impossibility of now winning in the state.
Senate Republicans, however, are signaling they’ll resist Democrats’ demands for restraints on ICE and Border Patrol, such as warrant requirements and a body camera mandate. And a Senate GOP aide said leaders plan to reject Democratic demands to split off DHS funding from the larger spending package.
Politically Fraught
The pushback on Democrats’ demands risks putting vulnerable Republicans like Representative Mike Lawler of New York in a tougher political position ahead of the midterm elections.
On Monday, Lawler called for an immigration deal that would give ICE access to criminals while providing a path to citizenship for long-time non-violent migrants.
“Let this be a moment for Americans of common sense and good will to come together and work towards a solution,” Lawler said on an X post on Monday.
Shutdowns historically end when the party seeking changes to the status quo folds, with the political fallout more mixed.
Just a few days ago, however, Democratic leaders were intent on passing the big package, which rejects many of Trump’s cuts, including in health research and education, and had sought to make affordability, not immigration, the focus of the midterm elections.
Deadline Nears
Unless Democrats back down, averting a shutdown would be extremely difficult by the funding deadline.
The House has no plans to return to Washington this week and would have to back any changes made in the Senate. Even a new stopgap bill lasting a few days would need approval by the House and since it would fund immigration enforcement it may not be amenable to Senate Democrats.
Procedural roadblocks would allow any one senator to force at least a brief shutdown by blocking amendments. Trump has repeatedly pushed Republicans to nix the filibuster rule to pass his agenda, but there’s no sign Republicans will do so.
GOP hardliners, including Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Rick Scott of Florida and Mike Lee of Utah have all vowed to oppose any efforts to defund DHS.
The partial government shutdown would begin early Saturday and affect the majority of agencies’ annual discretionary spending.
Normally immigration enforcement and the military work without pay during a shutdown but this time they are likely to be paid. Supplemental funding passed as part of Trump’s signature tax bill this summer were tapped during the last 43-day shutdown and the White House budget office is expected to do so again.
Businesses and markets would see a quick impact from a new shutdown.
It would likely delay next week’s monthly unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but Commerce Department economic data would not be affected.
There could be a delay in tax refunds as the IRS filing season ramps up, even though there is flexibility to have IRS workers review returns without pay. Small Business Administration loans would also be put on hold along with Pentagon contracts.
For Democrats, blocking the six-part funding package risks sacrificing hard-won gains made during the negotiation. The spending measure would reverse many cuts sought by Trump including to foreign aid, mass transit and education and housing grants. Democratic lawmakers have said passing the bill would make it harder for courts to allow the White House to refuse to spend appropriations in those areas.