ABP News-C Voter exit poll has predicted a clean sweep for Arvind Kejriwal led Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi Assembly polls in its projections flashed after the end of polling. The exit poll predicts 49-63 seats for AAP followed by 5-19 seats for the BJP and up to four seats for the Congress.
Kejriwal’s AAP had won 67 of the 70 seats in last assembly elections held in 2015. In Lok Sabha polls in 2019, BJP had registered leads in 65 of the 70 assembly constituencies, but it would seem that people voted differently for the assembly elections- if the predictions hold on Tuesday, when votes will be counted officially and results declared.
57.87% votes had been cast till 6 pm in the capital. A total of 67.12 % votes were cast in 2015 elections and AAP had won 54% of all those votes then but it dipped sharply to 26% in the municipal elections in 2017 and 18% in the Lok Sabha polls in 2019, when it couldn’t even open its account.
Both the BJP and the Congress have improved their vote share in this period. The BJP polled 56% votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, up from 36% in 2017 and 32% in 2015.
Exit polls are based on responses of people who have just cast their votes. Pollsters predict the results much before the actual counting of votes, assuming that the voters have correctly revealed their choice.
However, it remains to be seen how accurate exit polls turn out to be. They had predicted AAP’s return in 2015, but were way off the mark when it came to the number of seats.
{{/usCountry}}However, it remains to be seen how accurate exit polls turn out to be. They had predicted AAP’s return in 2015, but were way off the mark when it came to the number of seats.
{{/usCountry}}The exit polls had said in 2015 that AAP was likely to bag between 31 and 54 seats in the 70-member assembly. But, the party swept the polls, winning way more seats than what the exit polls had predicted.
The exit polls had also said in 2015 that the Bharatiya Janata Party could bag 17-35 seats. Here too, they went wrong, as the BJP could manage to win only three seats. Most of them were, however, correct when it came to Congress. They had said that the party would be routed, winning no seat or at best four seats. The Congress did not win any seat in the national capital in 2015.
14.5 million registered voters had the opportunity to exercise their franchise today in order to elect a new government for Delhi.
(An election exit poll, not always known to be correct, is a poll of voters taken immediately after they exit the polling stations)