E-Paper
Bihar show strengthens BJP’s national standing
Bihar Assembly Election 2020: The losses the party faced in strongholds punctured the notion of its invincibility after BJP’s electoral juggernaut collected wins in as many as 21 states during 2014-17.
Its performance in the battle of Bihar is a salve for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that has faced several defeats in assembly elections starting 2018 -- of the 17 assembly elections starting late 2018, it has won six and lost 10. The party, as a primary winner in the NDA, has secured 74 seats, the most in the alliance.
The losses that the party faced in strongholds such as Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh (it managed to wrest power in the last, and the results of the by-elections in the state have consolidated its position), punctured the notion of the party’s invincibility after the BJP’s electoral juggernaut collected wins in as many as 21 states between the 2014 general elections and 2017.
The BJP, in alliance with the Janata Dal (United), the HAM(S) and the VIP party has retained power in Bihar proving both forecasts of anti-incumbency and the exit polls wrong. And with Bihar in its kitty, the BJP-led NDA is now in power in 16 states.
In Madhya Pradesh by-election, the party won or was leading in 19 seats of the 28 seats that were critical for the survival of the state government; in Karnataka, the BJP won both seats; in UP 6 of the 7 seats and in Gujarat all 8. The party also won the only seat in Telangana and 4 of the 5 seats in Manipur.
Following the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where the BJP retained the seat of power at the centre with a brute majority, the party’s electoral fortunes reversed.
It lost the chance to return to power in Maharashtra where it fell out with its oldest ally, the Shiv Sena, over power sharing, and in Jharkhand where the Raghubar Das government lost to the coalition of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha with the Congress, RJD, CPI and NCP.
In Haryana, a hurried post-poll alliance with the Jananayak Janta Party ensured a second term for chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar in the face of a surprisingly strong performance by the Congress.
Earlier this year, it lost Delhi to the Aam Aadmi Party. In 2018, the party lost polls in the Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Its coalition government in Jammu and Kashmir with the PDP also collapsed in 2018.
The losses were attributed to the BJP’s inability to relate to the issues on the ground, and amplified the trend of Indian voters voting remarkably differently in state and national elections.
Ajay Gudavarthy, political analyst and professor at the Jawaharlal Nehru University said the BJP has not been able to perform as well at the state level as it does at the Centre because of its inability to understand the federal structure of the country.
“Its campaigns are all centered on PM (Narendra ) Modi. In some cases they undermine and undo their own regional leaders. This centralization helps win the general elections but proves to be detrimental at the state level.”
He said the campaigns in states sought to project Modi as a strong leader but failed to focus on the track record of the local leadership.
BJP leaders disagree with the assessment. Vinay Shahsrabuddhe, a Rajya Sabha MP, said the BJP’s approach to contesting state elections has been to head into a contest on the twin planks of development and politics of performance.
“A democracy imprisoned by identity politics has changed. Now people are inclined to vote for development politics and the politics of performance. I have never heard the Congress leadership including Mrs (Sonia) Gandhi appeal for votes on the basis of performance. In contrast in West Bengal recently, union home minister Amit Shah said people should compare the BJP’s track record of governance with that of the opposition and they will see we are far better,” he said.
The BJP’s winning streak began in late 2013 with wins in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chattisgarh. It then swept to power in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Soon after the May 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP led-NDA formed government in 11 states including in Jammu and Kashmir with an unlikely partner, the ideological polar PDP.
But in 2015 it lost Delhi and Bihar. The season of losses ran through 2016, when the party managed a win only in Assam and fared poorly in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, but showed an increase in its vote share in Kerala and West Bengal.
It gained ground in 2017 and some part of 2018, through weaving alliances in the North East, and winning Goa, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat and Manipur. It did lose in Punjab to the Congress, though.
