Exim Bank expects India’s non-oil exports to rise 0.3% in Oct-Dec

The total merchandise exports are forecast to continue to witness a moderation at $77.6 billion in October-December quarter of 2020-21 as against $79 billion a year ago, the Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) said.

Exim Bank expects India’s non-oil exports to increase 0.3% to $68.3 billion during October-December quarter of the ongoing fiscal.

The moderation in total merchandise exports is expected on the back of one of the steepest and continued contractions in India’s oil exports since March 2020, Exim Bank said. (Bloomberg)

The total merchandise exports are forecast to continue to witness a moderation at $77.6 billion in October-December quarter of 2020-21 as against $79 billion a year ago, the Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) said.

India’s non-oil exports for the third quarter of FY2021 are forecasted to amount to $68.3 billion, witnessing a marginal positive growth of 0.3% over the corresponding quarter of the previous year, after three consecutive quarters of contraction, it said.

The moderation in total merchandise exports is expected on the back of one of the steepest and continued contractions in India’s oil exports since March 2020, Exim Bank said.

The forecasts are based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) model. The bank releases the forecast on a quarterly basis.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate ELI for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.

It is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.