Indian IT stocks, led by Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. and Infosys, are likely to decline on Monday (22 September 2025) as US President Donald Trump’s hefty fee for new H-1B visas adds to worries for outsourcing giants.
Trump’s overhaul of the program, by mandating a $100,000 fee for applications, may deal a blow to Indian outsourcers like Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. and Infosys Ltd. that derive a large chunk of revenue from the US.
India’s IT services sector has already taken a hit from disappointing earnings for the April-June quarter and layoff plans by bellwether TCS, as customers curtailed technology spending amid flaring trade tensions. A gauge tracking the sector is down more than 15% so far this year, compared to the NSE Nifty 50 Index’s 7% gain.
“Companies will be forced to redesign their pricing plans to either offer an expensive onshore consulting model or a much cheaper offshore program where most of the work will be done outside the US,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Anurag Rana and Andrew Girard said.
Here’s what market watchers are saying on how share prices of TCS, Infosys, HCLTech, Wipro, Tech Mahindra and LTIMindtree may react to the H-1 visa changes:
JPMorgan
{{/usCountry}}Here’s what market watchers are saying on how share prices of TCS, Infosys, HCLTech, Wipro, Tech Mahindra and LTIMindtree may react to the H-1 visa changes:
JPMorgan
{{/usCountry}}The relative price of hiring workers on H-1B visas is expected to increase meaningfully. That is likely to force employers to increase the ratio of offshoring versus onshoring and substitute H-1B workers with local workers for onshore work. Meaning, more outsourcing jobs in India.
Jefferies
The move will entirely offset EBIT per H-1B employee, driving a shift away from H-1B usage (7% to 12% of revenue) toward local hiring, subcontracting, and nearshoring or offshoring.
The talent supply crunch will drive up onsite wages, which may drag profits by 4% to 13%. Growth may slow amid operating model shifts, macro pressures, and AI risk. Among large caps, we view Tata Consultancy and Infosys as well placed; among midcaps, Coforge Ltd.
Investec
Investec expects a strong negative reaction on stocks, with midcaps more at risk than large caps. There will be an impact on margins, considering the sudden dislocation and the politics involved. Immigration advisor Fragomen suggests litigation to challenge the ban. Any court order could be a reprieve that can squeeze shorts.
Emkay
According to Madhavi Arora of Emkay, services exports have finally been dragged into the ongoing global trade and tech war. Near-term impact on IT revenues may be limited, but if sustained, it may disturb Indian IT export companies’ traditional models.
Indian vendors have been very adaptive in modifying their business models, but “we do see an increase in risk premium impacting IT valuations”.
Nuvama
If firms continue to use their current H-1B visa-dependent workforce by paying a higher fee, the impact on margins is likely to be around 50 to 150 basis points. However, Nuvama forecasts companies will use H-1B visas only for absolutely critical and irreplaceable job profiles. Practically, the impact would be much lower.
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Citi
Within IT companies, HCL Technologies and Infosys said earlier this year that 80%- and 60%-plus of their US workforce is visa independent. Companies with less US exposure will obviously be relatively less impacted.
The impact will be largely visible from FY27. Come of it may be offset by higher outsourcing to India and lower outflow from education if Indian students refrain from studying abroad.