Political parties in Jammu and Kashmir are in poll mode and the recent meetings in Delhi and Jammu indicate that the Union Territory is headed for assembly elections this summer.
Under central rule for four years and declared a UT since the abrogation of Article 370 on August 5, 2019, the demand for holding assembly elections at the earliest has gathered momentum from all mainstream parties, including the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Top BJP leaders held back-to-back meetings in Delhi and Jammu in this regard, including one with Union home minister Amit Shah in which sources said holding elections and the security situation was discussed.
A follow-up meeting was held last Thursday. “We have been asked to gear up for elections. We want to win the maximum number of seats this time,” said a senior BJP leader, requesting anonymity. “Though our chances are bright, but the leadership is concerned about the resentment in Jammu over the recent targeted attacks (on Kashmiri Pandits),” said the former BJP legislator.
BJP banking on Apni Party
{{/usCountry}}BJP banking on Apni Party
{{/usCountry}}A silver lining is support from Apni Party president Altaf Bukhari, who has announced his willingness to ally with the BJP. Bukhari, who will be meeting Shah in this regard, said: “The elections are a few months away. Our people should have a democratically elected government and I’m confident of winning in both regions.” His party has been holding rallies both in Jammu and Kashmir to drum up support.
Bukhari floated the Apni Party in March 2020 and was the first Kashmiri leader to reach out to the BJP-led central government after the abrogation of Article 370. The outreach was significant since the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) opposed the Centre’s move.
The BJP leadership hopes for an alliance with Bukhari’s Apni Party and Sajjad Lone’s People’s Conference besides support from independent candidates to touch the double-digit figure in the elections. Lone, who was recently elected chairman of the party founded by his late father Abdul Gani Lone in the ’80s, hopes to expand his party’s base beyond north Kashmir.
Though he was part of the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), founded in October 2020 to campaign for the restoration of special status for J&K, Lone left the group in 2021 after his party won 10 District Development Council (DDC) seats in north Kashmir.
The PAGD now comprises the NC, PDP, the CPI(M) and J&K Awami National Conference.
People’s Conference looks to be kingmaker
Today, Lone’s party holds the Kupwara DDC chairman’s post and his main adversary is the National Conference that has dubbed him to be the BJP’s “C team”. For the past year, Lone has been holding political gatherings in north Kashmir, where his party hopes to get the maximum seats. “We have a good position in north Kashmir. Our party will be the kingmaker in the next election,” said a PC leader.
PC spokesman Adnan Ashraf is hopeful that the elections will be held soon. “Though there is apprehension of a delay but we believe the time has come to restore people’s democratic rights,” Ashraf said.
NC, PDP allies or rivals?
The NC and the PDP are readying their cadres for the elections, too. The NC has appointed constituency heads for assembly segments. They are seen as potential party candidates and are holding daily in their constituencies to garner public support.
Though NC and PDP leaders Farooq Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti want to contest the elections under the PAGD banner, they are facing opposition from within their parties to fight separately and take a call on the alliance after the results.
“We know an alliance has its own benefits and like the DDC elections, the PAGD will emerge victorious. But it’s up to the top leadership to decide. Cadres on the ground will implement their decision,” says additional PDP spokesman Rafeeq Rather.
The NC camp holds similar views. “We were never against fighting jointly. The party leadership is supreme. We are ready for the polls,” says Sajjad Shafi, the NC candidate from Uri in north Kashmir.
Sources say former chief minister and NC vice-president Omar Abdullah is keen that his party goes it alone in the polls. He, however, adds that a decision will be taken once the elections are declared.
Omar instead shifted attention to the BJP, saying its leaders were “running away” from holding elections. “Elections are our right but we will not beg for them,” he said at a press conference last week.
The PDP, which headed the last coalition government along with the BJP, is fighting for survival, especially when most of its senior leaders have left the party since 2018. The party is hoping to retain its hold in south Kashmir. “We are holding rallies and reaching out to people in our stronghold. It is our strategy of survival,” says a PDP leader, requesting anonymity.
Congress hopes Rahul’s yatra will revive party
Besides the NC and PDP leaders, CPI(M) legislator Mohammad Yusuf Tarigami is expected to be part of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra that will enter J&K on January 20 and conclude in Srinagar in the month-end with a rally in Srinagar. The Congress sees the yatra as an opportunity to raise the party’s stakes in the UT. The Congress could become another partner of the PAGD, particularly when it sees its former chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad planning to partner his Democratic Azad Party with the BJP.
“The concluding rally of the Bharat Jodo Yatra will not only send a strong signal to the nation but also help in the revival of the Congress in J&K. PAGD leaders participating in the rally will send a message that we are united against the BJP,” says Congress spokesman Sheikh Amir.
Groundwork complete
The delimitation exercise has been completed and the final electoral rolls were published in October.
On May 5 last year, 43 seats were earmarked for the Hindu-majority Jammu region and 47 for Muslim-majority Kashmir, making a total of 90 seats for the assembly, up from the 83 seats earlier.
Of the seven new seats, six were allotted to Jammu and one to Kashmir. Earlier, Jammu had 37 seats and Kashmir 46. This brings Kashmir’s representation down to 52.2% from 55.4% of the total seats and takes Jammu’s representation up 47.8% from 44.6%. The exercise was carried out on the basis of the 2011 Census, which put the population of J&K at 1.25 crore, with 56.2% in Kashmir and 43.8% in Jammu.