The southwest monsoon began withdrawing from West Uttar Pradesh on Wednesday, four days earlier than usual, but rainfall activity is expected to intensify over eastern and central parts of the state from Thursday as a deep depression develops over the Bay of Bengal. Heavy to very heavy rain is forecast at isolated places in East UP on September 25 and 26, while maximum temperatures are expected to fall by 6 to 9°C across the state.
The monsoon’s withdrawal from West UP normally begins from Bijnor on September 27, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). However, the early withdrawal is not expected to continue across the state in the coming days as weather conditions remain favourable for rainfall.
“There is no further withdrawal from UP during the next one week because conditions are not favourable for its immediate withdrawal in the next few days. In fact, rainfall activity is expected to increase mainly over East and Central parts of UP due to the ensuing deep depression in the Bay of Bengal from Thursday,” said Atul Kumar Singh, senior scientist at the Regional Meteorological Centre in Lucknow.
The IMD said the southwest monsoon had further withdrawn from most parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, the entire Delhi region and some parts of Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat on Wednesday. The withdrawal line now passes through Gurdaspur, Chandigarh, Muzaffarnagar, Aligarh, Dholpur, Udaipur, Deesa and Naliya.
A cyclonic circulation is also situated over northwestern UP. Widespread rainfall is expected across the state from September 24 to 27, accompanied by strong gusty surface winds.
{{/usCountry}}A cyclonic circulation is also situated over northwestern UP. Widespread rainfall is expected across the state from September 24 to 27, accompanied by strong gusty surface winds.
{{/usCountry}}“Heavy rainfall is likely, with very heavy rainfall occurring at isolated places in East Uttar Pradesh on September 25–26 (orange alert),” Singh said.
The withdrawal of the monsoon from West UP coincided with rainfall in Lucknow and adjoining districts on Wednesday. Kanpur city recorded 21.4 mm of rainfall in the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning.
UP rainfall deficit at 6%
Uttar Pradesh has received 680.3 mm rainfall against the long period average (LPA) of 726.1 mm, leaving the state with a 6% deficit, which falls in the normal category.
East UP has recorded 681.4 mm rainfall against an average of 772.9 mm, a deficit of 12%, while West UP received 678.8 mm against an average of 660.5 mm, a surplus of 3%.
So far, 14 districts have recorded deficit or large deficit rainfall. 30 districts have received normal rainfall, while 31 districts have recorded excess or large excess rainfall this season.
The normal withdrawal date is September 27 for Bijnor, September 28 for Agra, September 29 for Bareilly, September 30 for Jhansi and Mainpuri, October 3 for Lucknow and Kanpur, and October 4 for Prayagraj, Gorakhpur and Varanasi.