BMC exit polls predict clear win for Mahayuti coalition

The Congress and its ally, Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), among others, are expected to be a flop show. To be sure, exit polls are not always accurate

Mumbai: Exit polls on Thursday predicted a clear majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena-led Mahayuti alliance in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, suggesting that the Thackeray cousins, Raj and Uddhav, would fail to stop the ruling combine from taking control of India’s richest civic body after one of the fiercest election battles held in Mumbai.

Mumbai, India - 15 Jan 2026: A voter displays their ink marked finger after casting their vote for BMC elections at voting centre, colaba, in Mumbai, India, on Thursday, Jan 15, 2026. (Photo by Bhushan Koyande/HT Photo)

Meanwhile, the Congress and its ally, Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), among others, are expected to be a flop show. To be sure, exit polls are not always accurate.

According to Axis My India, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance is expected to win between 131 and 151 seats. Its main rival—the Shiv Sena (UBT)-Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS)-Nationalist Congress Party (SP) alliance—is projected to secure 58-68 seats. The Congress-VBA alliance is expected to win 12-16 seats, while others, including independents and smaller parties such as the NCP, AIMIM and Left parties, are projected to win 6-12 seats.

In terms of vote share, Axis My India predicted that the Mahayuti alliance would secure around 42%, with the BJP accounting for 28% and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena for the remaining 14%. The Shiv Sena (UBT)-MNS-NCP (SP) alliance is projected to secure a combined vote share of 32%, with Shiv Sena (UBT) at 24%, MNS at 7% and NCP (SP) at 1%.

DV Research offered a more conservative estimate, projecting 107-122 seats for the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, 68-83 seats for the Thackeray-led alliance, 18-35 seats for the Congress-led alliance, and 8-15 seats for others.

Jubilant Data Studio (JDS) projected a stronger showing for the Mahayuti, estimating 127-155 seats for the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, 44-64 seats for the Shiv Sena (UBT)-MNS-NCP (SP) alliance, and 16-25 seats for the Congress-led combine.

The JVC exit polls also indicate a strong performance by the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, which is projected to win around 138 seats and secure a vote share of 42%-45% in the metropolis. The Shiv Sena (UBT)-MNS alliance is estimated to win 59 seats, with a vote share of 34%-37%. The Congress-led alliance is projected to win 23 seats, garnering a vote share of only 13% to 15%.

The BMC has 227 seats, and a party or alliance must secure 114 seats to secure a majority. In the last BMC elections in 2017, the undivided Shiv Sena bagged 84 seats, while the BJP won 82.