One social media post, many speculations

On Saturday, Fadnavis gave an interview to Marathi channel TV9 insisting that Shinde would remain chief minister for the full term, adding that he would be made member of the legislative council if he is disqualified as member of the legislative assembly

A video clip posted on state BJP’s Twitter handle led to intense speculations on Friday evening. The video had Devendra Fadnavis’ much-talked about tagline ‘Mi Punha Yein’ (I’ll be back) during the 2019 assembly election campaign, which was aimed on cashing in on Fadnavis’ image as chief minister from 2014-2019. As BJP failed to form the government after the assembly elections, Opposition leaders had made fun of the same.

The post was deleted in less than an hour.

Two and a half years later, Fadnavis managed to pull down the MVA government and ensured the BJP was back in power. However, Opposition leaders still mocked him as he had to accept the post of deputy chief minister and not CM. Little wonder then that when the ‘Mi Punha Yein’ post was put up by the state BJP, it led to intense speculations.

The post was deleted in less than an hour. The party’s chief spokesperson Keshav Upadhye issued a statement saying nothing should be read into the post and that Eknath Shinde would remain the chief minister.

Before the clarification was issued, the reactions in political circles, especially in the ruling camp, were interesting. Ministers from the Shinde camp seemed wary but said they would check with their alliance partner. The disgruntled Ajit faction went further into depression as it would mean no chance of their leader becoming chief minister. Even in the BJP, there was surprise. A few leaders close to Fadnavis said they would welcome such a decision. Leaders like Pravin Darekar cautiously said not much should be read into it because such a major decision would not be announced by the party in such a manner. Since the Supreme Court judgement in May this year on the Sena vs Sena case, uncertainty is constant in the ruling alliance. Even Shinde’s legislators think their leader could be asked to step down at any time.

Some in the Shinde camp also doubt whether the post was an error or a veiled warning to the allies.

Ajit’s state yatra

Four months after he joined the alliance government as deputy chief minister, Ajit Pawar is still not sure if people have understood his version of the story—why he split the party formed by his mentor and uncle Sharad Pawar and joined the BJP led coalition. He has now decided to embark on a state tour. According to his faction’s state president Sunil Tatkare, Ajit will tour the state and explain why he took the decision. He will also insist that his faction has not embraced the right- wing agenda of both his alliance partners. With many of his MLAs coming from traditional NCP-Congress supporting areas, he is wary of taking the extreme line politically. According to his aides, Ajit also wants to reach out to the people to counter the narrative that his uncle is trying to set against him. Since the split in the party, the senior Pawar has been visiting different parts of the state and training guns on the rebels who split his party.

Haggling for Lok Sabha seats

By now, it has been made clear by the BJP to its alliance partners in Maharashtra that it would be contesting a majority of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Currently, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena has 13 MPs while Ajit faction of NCP has one. While Shinde is asking for 18-19 seats, Ajit too is keen to contest 9-10 Lok Sabha seats. According to the BJP insiders, the party has planned to contest 35 to 40 seats. It is willing to concede 8-9 seats to Shinde led Sena and 3-4 to Ajit faction. It is eyeing Lok Sabha seats such as Ramtek, Palghar, Washim, Mumbai north west which are held by Shinde’s party. Though its allies are likely to haggle for the seats, the BJP is likely to make it clear who the big brother is in the alliance, say insiders.