Maharashtra polls: Rebels, independents likely to play pivotal role in government formation

In a close contest between the two major political alliances, rebel candidates, Independents and borrowed MLAs could tip the scales in the numbers game

MUMBAI: In politics, especially during elections, things are rarely as they seem – foes engage in friendly fights; rebels who are not really rebels but are merely hedging their bets; and candidates who are not actually switching sides but being strategically borrowed by major parties to boost their chances in the numbers game.

Rebels, independents likely to play pivotal role in govt formation

Rebels and independent candidates may play their biggest role yet in recent times, as the upcoming assembly election has been billed as a close contest between the two major political alliances – the Maha Vikas Aghadi (Shiv Sena-UBT, NCP-SP, Congress) and the Mahayuti alliance (BJP, Shiv Sena, NCP).

If the numbers don’t add up to a clear majority – 145 of the 288 seats up for grabs – rebels and independents could play a pivotal role in who forms the new government and in the numbers each major party secures, after mopping up independent MLAs and rebel winners who turn opportunists.

With six major parties in the fray, each with multiple aspirants, there has been rebellion in at least a third of the 288 constituencies, while at least 50 of them are key rebels that can hurt the prospects of the official candidates from both the ruling and opposition alliances. On the other hand, the coalitions are facing ‘friendly fights’ in at least 15 constituencies.

Prominent rebels could dent the poll prospects of the official candidates in both alliances. For instance, Vaibhav Pichad, former BJP MLA, has rebelled against the Mahayuti candidate and sitting MLA Kiran Lahamate of the NCP. This could work in favour of NCP-SP’s Amit Bhangare in Akole in Ahmednagar district.

The BJP’s Vishal Parab has rebelled in Sawantwadi against Shiv Sena candidate and state minister Deepak Kesarkar, and this could benefit Sena (UBT) candidate Rajan Teli. In Mukhed in Nanded, chief minister Eknath Shinde’s former personal secretary, Balaji Khatgaonkar, has filed his nomination as an independent against BJP’s sitting MLA, Tushar Rathod. This may help Hanmant Betmogarekar of the Congress to win the seat. Other key contests where the ruling allies are fighting each other are Kalyan East, Junnar, Srirampur, Nandgaon, Nanded North and Nanded South, among others.

A similar rebellion in the opposition MVA could help candidates in the rival Mahayuti alliance. For instance, in Pandharpur, the Congress has fielded Bhagirath Bhalke against NCP-SP candidate Anil Sawant. This could help the BJP’s Samadhan Autade, owing to a vote split. In Solapur Central, Congress’s Chetan Narothe is on a sticky wicket due to NCP-SP rebel Mahesh Kothe and CPI-M caniddate Narsayya Adam.

Friendly fights

Mahayuti and MVA constituents are locked in ‘friendly fights’ in at least five and eight seats, respectively, In Morshi, the BJP has fielded Umesh Yavalkar against NCP’s Devendra Bhuyar. The BJP has fielded Suresh Dhas against NCP’s sitting MLA Balasaheb Asbe in Ashti; and the Shiv Sena has fielded Rajshri Ahirrao against NCP’s sitting MLA Saroj Ahire.

In the MVA too, Sena (UBT) has fielded Sangeeta Patil in Nanded North against Congress’s Abdul Sattar Gafoor. Amar Patil of the Sena (UBT) is pitted against Congress’s Dilip Mane in Solapur South; and Deepak Salukhe of the Sena (UBT) is fighting against MVA-backed Babasaheb Deshmukh of the PWP. In Pen, Panvel and Uran too, the PWP has fielded candidates against MVA candidates, despite being an alliance partner.

“Although many of the rebels are unlikely to get elected as they are not contesting on official symbols, they can muddy the prospects of the official candidate. Like in Nanded North and Nanded South, BJP rebels Milind Deshmukh and Dilip Kandkurte may cause trouble for Sena candidates. In Ashti, the sitting MLA Balasaheb Asbe of the NCP is in serious trouble after the BJP fielded Suresh Dhas. The sitting MLA is likely to be relegated to number-three position,” said a senior BJP leader.

“Also, it is believed that chief minister Eknath Shinde has tacitly backed independents Sharad Sonavane (Junnar) and Balaji Khatgaonkar (Mukhed) against official Mahayuti candidates. Both the official candidates are under serious threat,” said the senior BJP leader. He pointed out that there are more than 20 independents in the contest, against 13 in the outgoing Assembly.

A Sena (UBT) leader said that independents and smaller parties’ MLAs are likely to play a key role if neither political alliance gets a clear majority in the elections. “If the alliances are tacitly supporting independents, as in the case of Khatagaonkar and Sonawane, they will support the major parties in their hour of need. In Ramtek, the Congress is supporting party rebel Rajendra Mulak instead of the official Sena (UBT) candidate. If Mulak wins, he will stand by the Congress,” the leader from Vidarbha said.

Questions are also being raised about 17 candidates ‘borrowed’ by the Sena and NCP from their ally, the BJP. The Sena has fielded 11 BJP leaders like Rajendra Gavit, Sanjay Kaka Patil and Nilesh Rane from various constituencies, while the NCP has borrowed BJP leaders like Rajkumar Badole and Pratap Chikhalikar as part of the seat-sharing strategy. “The Sena and NCP will always be under the threat of these leaders standing by their original parties, if the allies are ranged against each other in a decision over the chief minister’s post,” he added.