With 21.3 mm recorded till September 15 at Shivajinagar, Pune city has experienced significant rainfall deficit till mid-September amid the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD’s) model forecast suggesting that there is no chance of significant rainfall at least for the next five days. According to a senior IMD official, the city may experience light rainfall for two days after the fifth day.
After experiencing ‘above normal’ rainfall for three months this rainy season, Pune city is experiencing a significant rainfall deficiency during the first half of September considered the last month of the monsoon season. As per the IMD data, Shivajinagar recorded just 21.3 mm rainfall in the last 15 days, against the normal rainfall of 143.6 mm in the month of September. Except for some areas in Vidarbha, the rest of Maharashtra experienced a similar situation in the last 15 days.
S D Sanap, senior meteorologist, weater and forecasting division, IMD Pune, reasoned, “The weather system that develops in the central or southern part of the Bay of Bengal brings good rainfall in Maharashtra but during the last two weeks, systems have mainly developed in the northern part of the Bay of Bengal and moved towards the northwest. This has caused a good amount of rainfall in the northern part of the country. In Maharashtra, only a few districts in Vidarbha received significant rainfall while other met sub-divisions including Konkan and Goa, central Maharashtra, and Marathwada did not receive a good amount of rainfall as in the earlier months.”
About the rainfall ahead, Sanap said, “The IMD forecast model suggests that there is not much rainfall activity in Pune in the next seven days starting September 15. At least during the first five days among these, there is no rainfall and light rainfall may occur on the sixth and seventh day. Further, the forecast will be updated at least three days earlier.”
{{/usCountry}}About the rainfall ahead, Sanap said, “The IMD forecast model suggests that there is not much rainfall activity in Pune in the next seven days starting September 15. At least during the first five days among these, there is no rainfall and light rainfall may occur on the sixth and seventh day. Further, the forecast will be updated at least three days earlier.”
{{/usCountry}}This means that there is no significant rainfall activity expected on the day of Ganesh Visarjan on September 18 and people can enjoy the last day of the Ganesh festival without much worry. Anupam Kashyapi, former head of the weather and forecasting division, IMD Pune, said, “On Tuesday, September 17 which coincides with Anant Chaturdashi, no rain is likely. Only very light to light rain is likely in Pune, Mumbai and even in Maharashtra. Light to moderate rain is likely in northern Vidarbha and adjoining areas.”
Some weather scientists have posted on social media platforms the likelihood of thunderstorm rain in the last week of September. Increased lightning, thunder and heavy rain in a short span of time is a characteristic of typical thunderstorm rain, and the city has experienced this kind of rain several times during the monsoon season this year. The thunderstorm rain might help in making up for the rainfall deficit in the city.
About this, Sanap said, “Thunderstorm rainfall is common during September however it is too early to say that the city will experience such rain in the last week of September. The IMD will issue warning well in advance if there are any such indications.”