Indian Premier League (IPL) is like the Indus Valley script, yet to be deciphered. Despite progress and preparation, and serious prayers, IPL cricket is difficult to call. Like the British weather and Indian elections, few get it right, most miss it by a mile. (IPL 2018 points table)
IPL teams are loaded with support staff -- technical experts, video analysts, Moneyball researchers, mental conditioning specialists, talent scouts and analytic gurus.
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This bunch is led by high-end coaches and pundits who check every horoscope to ensure the stars are favourably aligned. Yet, all this comes to zero because teams go horribly wrong on players even as auctions appear more focused. If this was an exact science, there would be no gap between players’ price and performance.
No bang for buck
Given a chance, teams would happily revisit their auction/ retention choices and the fate of those who lucked out (Ben Stokes/D’Arcy Short/ Sarfaraz Khan/Axar Patel) would be different.
If it was possible to precisely break down IPL, boasts of teams would have come true. Kings XI Punjab once claimed they were lions out on a kill but were embarrassed when the team performed poorly. Same with MI when they announced zamane ko dikhana hai (we will show the world).
{{/usCountry}}If it was possible to precisely break down IPL, boasts of teams would have come true. Kings XI Punjab once claimed they were lions out on a kill but were embarrassed when the team performed poorly. Same with MI when they announced zamane ko dikhana hai (we will show the world).
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Same with KKR’s initial boast of jeetbo (we’ll win), which came back to bite them. Delhi hired Gary Kirsten and Rahul Dravid but finished last. Point is nothing guarantees success, not Ponting or Warne as mentors, not AB de Villiers/Kohli at the top of the order.
No clear favourite
If there was a known formula for success no team would lose and no film would sink at the box office. It’s happened so often that teams strong on paper underperform miserably. Pre-tournament favourites do poorly and the wheels come off after a few games. Technical deficiencies of players are exposed, celebrated foreign batsmen struggle against spin and expensive bowlers fail to make an impact.
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This unpredictability of not knowing who will win or what the next ball will do makes IPL hugely exciting. It is a thrill, like ABD hitting one ball over extra cover and the next, similar delivery, over square leg. As IPL is contested by evenly matched teams on a level-playing field (which is why a salary cap) it is impossible to name a clear favourite.
But not everything is uncertain -- there is lot of method in IPL. Teams prepare better, the processes are well defined and much thought is invested into making teams/players match ready. Practice sessions simulate match situations where batsmen practise hitting sixes and bowlers work hard on nailing yorkers. Captains create customised plans for batsmen, which means Raina/Yuvraj/Sunil Narine will be dealt short balls and mid wicket and third man will be placed just right. Similarly, bowling changes are thought through and tactically driven.
The IPL has progressed; tighter games have made the margin of error thin. Team talk is now about ‘keeping momentum and executing plans’ instead of ‘enjoying and expressing myself’.
Still, matches are difficult to call.
(Amrit Mathur is a senior cricket writer and has been involved with IPL in official capacity)
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by author in this article are personal.