It’s been a dramatic start to the 2023 World Cup for Jos Buttler’s England. The holders lost their opening match to New Zealand, beat Bangladesh and then suffered a shock defeat to Afghanistan. While their fate is still in their own hands - winning every game would almost certainly deliver them into the semi-finals - it’s been a chastening start to the competition for one of the favourites. So what’s gone wrong?
Misfiring Batting Unit
England’s 2019 World Cup winning
It’s been a dramatic start to the 2023 World Cup for Jos Buttler’s England. The holders lost their opening match to New Zealand, beat Bangladesh and then suffered a shock defeat to Afghanistan. While their fate is still in their own hands - winning every game would almost certainly deliver them into the semi-finals - it’s been a chastening start to the competition for one of the favourites. So what’s gone wrong?
Misfiring Batting Unit
England’s 2019 World Cup winning side were defined by their ultra-attacking batting - to this day, Morgan’s side are the fastest scoring ODI side in history, going at 5.9 rpo, churning out huge totals with relentless consistency.
This time however, their batting has struggled. In all three matches they have been bowled out, even in the success against Bangladesh. Yet plenty of onlookers have suggested that rather than going too hard - the accusation against them is that they have played too much T20 cricket, with the English domestic schedule removing the option to play the List A competition - England’s World Cup batters haven’t gone hard enough.
The breakdown of the numbers doesn’t really support this view. England’s attacking shot percentage is 61, the second highest in the competition, behind South Africa on 72%. Similarly, their Attack Rating – a measure which considers the broader intent of hitting gaps rather than hitting fielders, and similar – also has England as among the most attacking batting orders in the competition. What is notable though is that their run rate when attacking - 7.8 rpo - is in the bottom half of the table. It’s a simple point, but England haven’t been too attacking, or not attacking enough – they have just been bad at attacking. Shot selection, good opposition field settings, and a dose of bad luck have all contributed to the blunting of England’s most dangerous weapon.
Bowling Concerns
England may have been bowled out in every innings of this World Cup, but concerns around their bowling attack have felt just as relevant to their poor performance. At CricViz, our Expected Wickets model takes the ball tracking data from matches and assess how you ‘expect’ those deliveries to perform if they were bowled to a typical batter. So far in this World Cup, England’s Expected Average with the ball is 36.5, worse than every team in the tournament barring Sri Lanka and Netherlands. In 2019, England’s bowling wasn’t their defining feature, but it performed far better, both as per traditional measures (ranking third in terms of bowling average) and more detailed metrics (ranking fourth in Expected Average).
No bowler better encapsulates England’s issues than Chris Woakes. In the previous World Cup cycle, 2015 to 2019, Woakes was outstanding, with only New Zealand’s Trent Boult taking more new ball wickets. He was Eoin Morgan’s Mr Dependable, banging out length and building pressure in the opening stages of the innings, but that consistency has vanished. In this World Cup, all of Woakes’ opening spells have gone at more than 7 rpo – in all the matches Morgan captained Woakes, 81 in total, that happened just six times.
It’s a cliche to point out Woakes’ poor Test record away from home, but the equivalent struggles in ODI are mentioned rather less often. He briefly found success on the road in 2017 and 2018, when England as a whole were arguably at their absolute peak, but since then Woakes’ record away from home is really poor. While it’s hard to blame conditions too much given the nature of his struggles in this World Cup – he's lost that metronomic accuracy – it does feel like England took for granted Woakes’ ability to set the tone at the top of the innings. With him out of form, they lack pressure.
Some Bad Luck
Almost all defeats involve an element of poor fortune, and England’s in the World Cup are no different. They have been dismissed every six false shots they have played; only twice since records began in 2006 have England’s mistakes been punished so harshly. Of course, not all false shots are equal, but it is clear that in this particular area, England have not had the rub of the green.
Similarly, while their bowling has been ineffective, their Expected Bowling Average of 36.5 is still lower than their actual bowling average of 40.21 -- albeit only marginally. These are not hugely substantial reasons why England have lost the games they have lost, but they are – particularly the false shot statistic – reasons for optimism going forward, and a suggestion that results may improve.
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