India finds itself in a difficult position because of actions taken by its special and privileged strategic partner, Russia, in Ukraine, which have sparked concerns about a conflict engulfing Europe and tearing down the security architecture established over decades. The tumult caused by Russia’s attack roiled global markets and caused a surge in oil prices, unwelcome developments when economic recovery is the focus of Indian policymakers, and the lingering uncertainty is unlikely to dissipate any time soon. Both Russia and
India finds itself in a difficult position because of actions taken by its special and privileged strategic partner, Russia, in Ukraine, which have sparked concerns about a conflict engulfing Europe and tearing down the security architecture established over decades. The tumult caused by Russia’s attack roiled global markets and caused a surge in oil prices, unwelcome developments when economic recovery is the focus of Indian policymakers, and the lingering uncertainty is unlikely to dissipate any time soon. Both Russia and Western allies are now looking to India to pick a side — an important United Nations Security Council vote is scheduled for Saturday morning India time — in a fight involving principles that are central to New Delhi’s efforts to strengthen a rules-based international order based on respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity. And, India has been left scrambling to ensure the safety and evacuation of some 16,000 nationals, most of them students, from Ukraine in extremely fraught circumstances.
During a phone conversation with President Vladimir Putin hours after the leader ordered what has been described as a “special military operation” in Ukraine, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for an immediate end to violence and a return to diplomatic negotiations by all sides. Mr Modi said the differences between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) can only be settled through sincere dialogue. However, the official Russian statement on the conversation made no mention of Mr Modi’s appeal. Mr Putin’s recent talk of the “demilitarisation and denazification” of Ukraine has given rise to fears of a prolonged occupation, and reports of civilian casualties will add to misgivings about the use of military force.
India will have to resort to deft manoeuvring to cope with the immediate fallout of what is nothing less than a military invasion and a violation of international law, and the more complicated aftermath that is still taking shape. It will have to grapple with concerns about China being emboldened by the developments in Ukraine to indulge in other misadventures while the focus of the Western powers is on Europe. It will also have to do some plain talking with Russia, a crucial supplier of defence hardware and technology, and convey the message that India does not want to be forced to take sides. This will be no easy task as India’s two main adversaries — China and Pakistan — have shown they have no qualms about cosying up with Russia and endorsing its actions in Ukraine.
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