Migration's economics and politics in US, Europe and China | Number Theory

All of this is happening as the world’s other economic superpower, China, has achieved economic might without having to allow significant number of in-migrants

Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and an immigrant to America, believes Europe is a cesspool of illegal migration and the UK is on the brink of a civil war because of it. Back home, he supported President Donald Trump’s tough stance on illegal migration but opposed his restrictive policies on the migration of high-skilled workers. The veracity of Musk’s claims notwithstanding, Europe continues to debate migration, as was seen during the dramatic episode of thousands of Moroccans illegally crossing

AFP file photo

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  Migrants are still a small share of world’s population…

  International migration has grown from a demographic footnote into a political fault-line. The number of people living outside their country of birth or citizenship rose from 84 million in 1970 to 304 million in 2024, an increase of 260%. Over the same period, the world’s population grew by 121%, from 3.7 billion to 8.2 billion. Yet the scale should not be overstated. Migrants increased from 2.3% to just 3.7% of the global population.
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  But migrant exporting and importing countries vary drastically

  The headline share of migrants might not be a good indicator of why it is so debated politically. Migration’s political weight is amplified by where it is concentrated. Europe and Northern America hosted 155 million migrants in 2024, more than half the global stock, despite accounting for only around 14% of the world’s population. The difference is even more pronounced if one were to compare countries by number of migrants they host and export across the world. If one were to compare countries by their net import of migrants adjusted for population, Europe stands out even more. Countries like China and India are on the other extreme: they have sent far too many migrants than host them.
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  US is split down the middle on welcoming even high-skill migrants, Europe wants the high-skill ones but not the unskilled/asylum seekers

  America’s economic and strategic might would not be what it is without migrants. From slaves shipped in to do forced labour on plantations to Europe’s knowledge elite fleeing Nazi persecution to the new wave of Asian migrants – primarily from India and China – becoming important stakeholders in US’s financial and technology leadership at present, the story has had different acts but the same impact. Trump wants to change all that by putting a prohibitively high fees on $100,000 on foreign graduates of American universities who want to work in the US. This follows a similar, now withdrawn levy, on H-1B visas. The costs of doing this could be really high. Almost four in ten of US’s science and engineering masters and PhD degree holders are foreigners. Europeans seem to be more pragmatic and are happy to welcome migrants who are high-skilled or looking to become high-skilled but not those who are unskilled or just asylum seekers.
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• How will the US and Europe resolve their political debate on migration? Will these mutate into cultural wars as the likes of Musk and the neo-right political formations he supports in Europe are saying or will democratically elected governments find a way to strike a balance? Will China carve out an exception in the world where a country achieves economic dominance without opening its doors to a large number of skilled as well as unskilled workers from other parts of the world? For India, one of the largest migrants exporting countries in the world and also the largest recipient of remittances, these are not just theoretical questions. They are deeply linked to its economic future.