Number Theory: Indians 2% of illegal immigrants in US — Trends captured in 3 charts

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The deportation of illegal Indian immigrants by the Trump administration last week has brought the issue of unauthorised Indian immigrants in the US into focus. How big is this problem? Has this increased over time? A paper published by Abby Budiman and Devesh Kapur, PhD student and professor respectively, at Johns Hopkins University , on February 10 answers this question in detail. Here is a summary of their key findings.

A mother and child look at the US military plane deporting Indian immigrants as it lands in Amritsar earlier this month. (REUTERS)

Indians 2% of illegal immigrants in US — Trends captured in 3 charts

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  Unofficial estimates of illegal Indian migrants in the US are much larger than official numbers

  Official data published by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shows that the number of unauthorised Indian migrants inside the US peaked in 2016 at 560,000 and went down to 220,000 as of 2022 -- 2% of all illegal immigrants in the US. “Not only did the Indian unauthorised population increase in absolute numbers, but it also increased relative to the overall unauthorised migrant population in the U.S., from 0.8% in 1990 to 3.9 percent in 2015, but then declining sharply to 2% in 2022,” the paper said. However, private estimates by organisations such as the Pew Research Centre, Centre for Migration Studies and Migration Policy Institute give a much higher number. Private and official estimates for this number moved in tandem between 1990 and 2004, started diverging only to converge by 2018, butd diverged wildly thereafter. PRC and CMS estimated that approximately 700,000 Indian immigrants were in the US in 2022, more than three times DHS’s estimate of 220,000. The divergence between private and official estimates is primarily on account of estimates of temporary migrant subgroup of Indians in the US, the paper said.
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  From Mexico or Canada: How do Indians enter the US?

  While the number of illegal Indian immigrants in the US has declined according to DHS data,, Indian encounters at US borders jumped from 1,000 in 2020 to a peak of 43,000 in 2023 before slightly falling to 40,000 in 2024 — far exceeding the previous high of 9,000 in 2018. The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) divides the country’s borders into three regions: the Southwestern border with Mexico, the Northern border with Canada, and the Coastal border. Until 2024, nearly all Indian apprehensions occurred at the Southwestern border. However, in 2024, Northern border crossings surged, making up 36% of all encounters, up from just 4% the previous year. “Meanwhile a host of diploma mills in Canada were only too happy to accept dubious international students, 50,000 of whom did not show up after entering Canada (20,000 from India alone), heading South to the US border, a cheaper and much less arduous entryway than from the Southern border,” the paper said.
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  Punjabi-speaking immigrants account for two-thirds of Indian-origin asylum seekers

  US regulations allow border detainees fearing persecution in their home country to seek asylum in the US. This is often used as a conduit to get US citizenship. The number of Indians requesting asylum in the US has surged eightfold since 2020, from 6,000 to over 51,000 in 2023. OECD data shows that similar trends are seen in Canada, the UK, and Australia. While administrative data in the US lacks details on Indian asylum seekers’ demographics, court records tracking spoken languages offer insights. The paper uses official data to show that Punjabi speakers have led Indian asylum filings since 2001, making up 66% of cases, suggesting most applicants are from Punjab and Haryana. Hindi speakers have risen sharply, from 6% in 2017 to nearly 30% in 2022, while Gujarati (7%) and English (8%) are also common. The paper argues that asylum requests from India are more a ploy to gain citizenship rather than escape persecution. “We can be confident of this claim since we see very little evidence of India’s poor marginalized communities or those from regions with ongoing anti- militancy operations by the government among asylum seekers,” the paper said. The cost of reaching the US — whether via Latin America or as “fake” international students in Canada — is 30 to 100 times India’s per capita income. Only those with assets, particularly land, can afford the journey, the paper said.