In the third phase of the assembly elections in West Bengal, 31 assembly constituencies (ACs) across three districts of South Bengal will go to the polls. This is the region that accounts for the most ACs in the state (167 of 294).
In the 31 ACs of South Bengal voting on Tuesday, the BJP won none in 2014 or 2016 and only two in 2019 (Lok Sabha polls). However, it increased its vote share in these ACs from 6.9% in 2016 to 37.4% in 2019. This increase in seat share and vote share in 2019 came entirely on the back of squeeze in the vote share of parties other than the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC). TMC’s vote share has increased in these 31 ACs from 50.2% in 2016 to 51.1% in 2019 and it won 29 ACs on both occasions, if the Lok Sabha results are disaggregated at the AC-level.
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To be sure, although the BJP’s gains in the ACs of this phase have come without any loss in the seat share and vote share of the TMC, this election can be a lot closer if the former continues to gain at the expenses of the Left parties. Of the 29 ACs, the BJP lost to the TMC in 2019, the margin was less than 10% of the total votes polled in 11 and less than 5% in four. Left Front parties played a spoiler for the BJP in seven ACs that it lost in 2019.
{{/usCountry}}To be sure, although the BJP’s gains in the ACs of this phase have come without any loss in the seat share and vote share of the TMC, this election can be a lot closer if the former continues to gain at the expenses of the Left parties. Of the 29 ACs, the BJP lost to the TMC in 2019, the margin was less than 10% of the total votes polled in 11 and less than 5% in four. Left Front parties played a spoiler for the BJP in seven ACs that it lost in 2019.
{{/usCountry}}A party is said to have played spoiler in an AC if it finishes third or below, but polls more votes than the victory margin.
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The ACs voting on Tuesday in West Bengal are very diverse: 16 are located in the South 24 Parganas district, which has the fifth highest share of Muslims (35.6%) among the 19 districts of the state, and seven are located in Howrah district, where the share of Muslims is 26.2%.
Hooghly district, where the remaining eight ACs are located, has just 15.8% Muslims. Howrah and Hooghly are also among the richer districts of the state, while South 24 Parganas is among the poorest.
Bengal will vote in five more phases, with the last being on April 29. By the end of Tuesday, the state would have voted in 91 of its 294 constituencies.