10 states to go to by-polls on Tuesday; keen contest in MP, UP, Gujarat, Karnataka

Except for Madhya Pradesh, the outcome of by-poll will have no impact on the incumbent state governments.

Along with the second phase of polling in Bihar, voting for 56 other assembly seats across 10 states would also take place on Tuesday, a first electoral test for political parties in times of Covid-19. Although the ruling party in the state wins the by-polls majority of times, there is a keen contest on cards in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka and Manipur.

Bengaluru: BJP party workers and supporters campaign for the BJP candidate in Rajrajeshwari Nagar constituency Munirathna Naidu during an election campaign rally for by-polls. (PTI)

Except for Madhya Pradesh, the outcome of by-poll will have no impact on the incumbent state governments. In MP, the BJP needs to win at least 8 of the 28 assembly seats to have a majority in the 230-member house. The Congress needs to win all seats to touch the magic figure of 115.

Even though 63 seats were vacant, the Election Commission announced polls on 56 seats. These 7 vacant seats are in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam, and West Bengal, all of which are scheduled to get new Assemblies next year. The remaining two seats – in Manipur - would go to polls in November 7. Counting of votes for all by-polls would be on November 10 along with Bihar.

Uttar Pradesh

Stage is set for multi-corner contests in the by-elections to seven assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh on Tuesday with ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Congress candidates in fray. Elections will take place in Naugawan Sadat (Amroha), Bulandshahr, Tundla (Firozabad), Bangarmau (Unnao), Ghatampur (Kanpur), Deoria and Malhani (Jaunpur) seats. Polling will begin at 7 am and continue till 6 pm with strict enforcement of Covid-19 guidelines. Of the seven, six seats were held by the BJP and one by SP.

Gujarat

By-polls to eight Assembly seats in Gujarat will be held on November 3. The eight seats that will go to polls — Abdasa, Limdi, Morbi, Dhari, Gadhada (ST), Karjan, Dangs (ST) and Kaprada (ST) — fell vacant after Congress MLAs representing them quit the party before the Rajya Sabha elections in June, thus bringing down the strength of the party in the polls. The elections were necessitated by the resignation of Congress MLAs before June 2020 assembly elections, helping the saffron party win both the RS seats. In all the assembly seats, it is a direct fight between the Congress and the BJP.

The Congress sees good performance in by-polls as seeds of revival before 2022 assembly elections and the BJP would like to cement its position in state politics by winning all the seats. The new Gujarat BJP chief, CR Patil, has set himself an ambitious goal of winning all 182 seats in the Assembly elections of 2022. While the BJP’s campaign has been largely around the national issues of the Ram temple at Ayodhya, the abrogation of Article 370, and attacks against the “sinking ship” of the Congress, the Congress has focused on the MLAs who were “bought over” by the BJP. The economic distress brought by the pandemic and the lockdown have not got much attention from either party.

Karnataka

All the three main parties in Karnataka – the BJP, the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) - have made it a prestige battle to win the Sira and Raja Rajeshwari (RR) Nagar, two assembly constituencies which go to polls. The Sira seat fell vacant after the sitting JDS MLA B Satyanarayana died due to Covid-19. The RR Nagar seat is witnessing by-polls as MLA Munirathna resigned and crossed over from the Congress to the BJP helping topple the JDS-Congress coalition government in the state. The fate of 31 candidates who are in contention for the two seats will be sealed on Tuesday.

Both the constituencies are Vokkaliga dominated. While the BJP, which has never won any of the two constituencies, is looking to break into new territory and expand its base, for the Congress this is the first poll the party is facing elections under new Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president DK Shivakumar who wants to prove a point. For the regional JDS, it is an existential question as any loss would diminish the party’s historic role as a key third pole in the state politics. The outcome of the polls though is unlikely to affect the power balance in the state as BJP enjoys a clear simple majority with 117 members in the 225 member assembly apart from the support of three independents.

However, a win for BJP in Sira, where CM Yediyurappa’s son B Y Vijayendra is leading the party’s campaign, would help cement his position in the party.

Jharkhand

Of the two by-polls in Jharkhand, all eyes are on Dumka from where chief minister Hemant Soren’s young brother Basant Soren is in fray against former minister and BJP leader Lious Marandi. The other constituency going to polls is Bermo from where sitting Congress legislator Rajendra Prasad Singh died of illness in May. Hemant Soren vacated Dumka assembly after registering victory from two seats and retained Barhait. There are 17 candidates in Dumka while 16 are in the fray in Bermo constituency. The contest is bipolar in both seats with the ruling JMM and Congress locked in a direct battle against the BJP candidates.

Chhattisgarh

In Chhattishgarh’s Marwahi assembly constituency, Congress’s Krishan Kumar Dhruv and BJP‘s Gambir Singh are pitted against each other with no one from the Jogi clan in the fray for the first time in 20 years. The election was necessitated after Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (J) MLA and former chief minister Ajit Jogi passed away in May and his wife Richa Jogi’s nomination was rejected on technical grounds. The Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (Jogi) had extended support to BJP candidate alleging that the ruling Congress has insulted Ajit Jogi.

Odisha

More than 5 lakh voters would decide the fate of candidates in Balasore Sadar and Tirtol. By-poll to the Balasore Sadar and Tirtol constituencies was necessitated following the death of incumbent MLAs - Madan Mohan Dutta of BJP and Bishnu Das of BJD respectively. Though Congress is in the fray in both the constituencies, the fight in the two seats will be mainly between the BJP and the BJD. In both the seats, the sons of the sitting MLAs were chosen by their respective parties as candidates. In Balasore, Manas Dutta is the BJP candidate while in Tirtol, Bijay Shankar Das is the BJD candidate. Though the result of the seats is not going to have any bearing on the Naveen Patnaik government, the BJD has deployed over a dozen state ministers and 35 MLAs to win Balasore Sadar.

Haryana

Bharatiya Janata Party’s Yogeshwar Dutt, an Olympian, is trying his luck for the second time as he takes on Indu Raj Narwal of the Congress. Dutt lost by 19,000 votes to Congress’ Sri Krishan Hooda in 2019 state assembly election who died on April 12 this year. The Congress is hoping for a fourth straight win from this Jat dominated constituency riding on former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s popularity. A total of 14 candidates are contesting. Anant Ram, retired professor of political science at Bhiwani Government College said the by-poll would indicate whether chief minister Manohar Lal Khatter has been able to dent Hooda’s popularity in this Jat belt which Congress almost swept in 2019.