The Axis My India exit poll projection for the West Bengal assembly election is not coming out, according to the organisation’s founder, Pradeep Gupta, who said voters were choosing to stay mum about who they voted for.
In a press release, Gupta said that Axis My India deployed a structured field research exercise across all 294 Assembly constituencies in West Bengal. He added that a team of 80 trained surveyors, organised into 16 independent field units, conducted voter interviews using standardised exit poll methodologies, covering a sample of over 13,250 respondents.
“The fieldwork in West Bengal presented an atypical and statistically significant challenge. We observed an exceptionally high non-response rate, with approximately 70% of approached voters declining to participate in the survey. While some degree of respondent hesitancy is factored into our sampling models, a refusal rate of this magnitude materially exceeds historical norms and introduces a high degree of non-response bias,” the statement read.
“Our teams travelled over 8,324 kilometres to complete the fieldwork, and we had prepared to publish the findings of the Axis My India exit poll for West Bengal. However, after a detailed internal review of data quality, response distribution, and statistical confidence levels, we have taken a considered decision not to release the exit poll estimates for the state,” Gupta added in the Press release
{{/usCountry}}“Our teams travelled over 8,324 kilometres to complete the fieldwork, and we had prepared to publish the findings of the Axis My India exit poll for West Bengal. However, after a detailed internal review of data quality, response distribution, and statistical confidence levels, we have taken a considered decision not to release the exit poll estimates for the state,” Gupta added in the Press release
{{/usCountry}}Most prominent pollsters have released exit poll projections that paint a divided picture of the likely outcome in West Bengal. Some surveys forecast a victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while others suggest that the Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by chief minister Mamata Banerjee, will retain the power it has held for 15 years in the state.
West Bengal voted in two phases on April 23 and 29 across 294 seats following extensive campaigning by both the BJP and the TMC. The results will be out on May 4, with Trinamool looking for a straight fourth term in the state, while the BJP aims to create history by winning in Bengal for the first time. To form a government in the state, a party or alliance would need to touch the majority mark of 148 seats.
What other pollsters predicted for West Bengal
According to Matrize, the TMC+ may fall short of the majority mark by a few seats, winning between 125 and 140 constituencies. It gave an edge to the BJP, predicting that it may win 146–161 seats, indicating a close contest between the two main parties.
A similar projection was given by pollster P-Marq, which said the BJP is expected to take the lead with 150–175 seats, while the incumbent Trinamool Congress may win 118–138 seats. It also projected that other parties could secure between two and six seats.
Polls Poll Diary predicted a clear win for the BJP, stating that the party may win 142–171 seats, while the TMC may fall well short of the majority mark with just 99–127 seats.
However, pollster People’s Pulse offered a different projection, suggesting that the incumbent TMC government may retain power in the state, though its tally could drop to 177–187 seats from the current 215 in the Assembly. It projected that the BJP would secure 95–110 seats.