Number theory: A SWOT analysis of the BJP in Karnataka

Here are three charts which look at the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats for the BJP in the forthcoming Karnataka polls.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is fighting to retain power in the state of Karnataka which will go to polls on May 10. What are the BJP’s prospects in these elections? Here are three charts which look at the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats for the BJP in the forthcoming Karnataka polls.

Strength: B S Yediyurappa is on board

Union home minister Amit Shah with Karnataka chief minister Basavaraj Bommai in Bengaluru. (ANI) (HT_PRINT)

In 2013, former BJP chief minister BS Yediyurappa broke his ties with the party and contested the elections under the banner

Weakness: BJP’s 2018 performance was lacking in some regions

Why did the BJP fail to win a majority of its own despite having Yediyurappa on board and enjoying the benefit of anti-incumbency in the 2018 elections? A sub-regional analysis of the results from 2008 to 2018 can throw some light on this question. While the BJP significantly improved its performance in coastal and central Karnataka --the former has been a traditional BJP stronghold and the latter is considered to be dominated by Lingayats, which is why Yediyurappa is important -- it failed to make inroads in the traditional strongholds of the Congress (Bombay and Hyderabad Karnataka) and the Janata Dal (Secular) or JD(S)’s pocket borough of southern Karnataka. It was this ability of the Congress and the JD (S) to achieve a critical minimum in terms of seats which laid the groundwork for a post-poll alliance between the two parties after the 2018 results.

See Chart 2: Sub-region wise seats of BJP in 2008, 2013 and 2018

Opportunity: An entry into JD (S) strongholds can bring windfall gains for the BJP

The alliance between Congress and the JD (S) was driven more by a bid to retain power than an organic alignment of the two parties on the ground. The biggest proof of this is that the BJP was practically absent in the southern Karnataka region and it is the Congress which was the JD(S)’s primary adversary in this region. A pre-poll alliance between Congress and the JD (S) in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections collapsed under the weight of these contradictions and the BJP emerged as the biggest beneficiary of this churn. A comparison of the 2018 assembly elections and the 2019 Lok Sabha elections shows this clearly, with the BJP increasing its seat share in the southern Karnataka regions in 2019. If the BJP can repeat its performance in southern Karnataka at the cost of the JD (S), it stands to make big gains in the forthcoming polls.

See Chart 3: Party-wise seats in southern Karnataka in 2008, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2018 and 2019

Threat: Will defections hurt the BJP?

The BJP is facing strong anti-incumbency in the state. It has witnessed a number of high-profile exits from the party.Former chief minister Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi who served as a deputy CM recently joined Congress. Both of them belong to the Lingayat community and wield considerable influence in the Bombay Karnataka region of the state. Jagadish Shettar has a stellar winning streak from his Hubli-Dharwad constituency. His winning margin has been at least 14% in the past three elections. While it is premature to assess the impact of these defections on the BJP’s electoral prospects, they have certainly created a perception of the party’s vulnerability. This might play a role in sending fence-sitter voters towards Congress, which is the main opposition party in the state.