How cohesive are NDA, INDIA blocs in third phase of Lok Sabha elections?
Like the first two phases of the 2024 elections, the Congress-led INDIA bloc will contest the third phase in a less cohesive manner than the BJP-led NDA .
toLike the first two phases of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress-led INDIA bloc will contest the third phase of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections in a less cohesive manner than the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA . To be sure, the conflict within both these alliances is more muted in the third phase of the elections than it was in the second phase with some likely to be entirely notional .
The INDIA bloc has fielded 108 candidates for the 93 PCs voting on May 7, 15 candidates more than the seats on offer. While 13 PCs have two INDIA bloc candidates, Barpeta PC in Assam has candidates from three parties contesting elections. INDIA parties being in an intra-alliance conflict in 14 of 93 PCs (15% of PCs) is an improvement compared to the second phase of elections when there was an intra-alliance contest in 40 of the 88 PCs (45.5%). Such conflicts were limited to 12 of the 112 PCs (10.7%) of the first phase.
Four of the 14 PCs where there is a conflict between INDIA parties are in West Bengal where the contest is between All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Congress-Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPI(M) alliance. The BJP and the Congress won one each of these four PCs in 2019, while the TMC won two of them. The remaining 10 PCs where there is a conflict among INDIA parties are in Chhattisgarh (1 PC), Madhya Pradesh (1 PC), Dadra and Nagar Haveli (1 PC);, Assam (2 PCs), Maharashtra (2 PCs), and Gujarat (3 PCs).
The BJP-led alliance won seven of these 10 PCs in 2019, while an independent candidate won another seat. The 2019 result for the two Assam PCs is not relevant because of delimitation. Among INDIA bloc members, the Congress is contesting the highest number of seats (68 PCs) in this phase of elections.
Compared to the INDIA alliance, the NDA alliance is much more cohesive in this phase, just like in the previous two phases. NDA members are in a conflict in only 6 of the 93 PCs (6.45%), 82 of which the BJP is contesting. While the proportion of seats with intra-NDA conflicts is higher in third phase than both the first phase PCs (no conflicts) and the second phase PCs (two of 88 PCs), these are due to relatively small partners in the alliance – they did not have any Lok Sabha MP in 2019 – fielding a candidate along with the BJP. Of the six PCs where there is more than one NDA party contesting, the contest is against the BJP in four PCs (one each in Gujarat and Karnataka and two in Madhya Pradesh) and against the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) in two PCs, both of which are in Assam.