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IMD forecast: India to receive above-average monsoon rains in 2025. What does it mean?
India is set for above-average monsoon rains in 2025, potentially boosting agricultural and economic growth, according to the India Meteorological Department.
India is expected to receive above-average monsoon rains in 2025, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday, raising expectations of higher farm and economic growth in Asia's third-biggest economy.
M Ravichandran, secretary in the ministry of earth sciences, told a news conference that the monsoon, which usually arrives over the southern tip of Kerala around June 1 and retreats in mid-September, is expected to reach 105% of the long-term average this year, news agency Reuters reported.
The IMD defines average or normal rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm for the four-month season.
Total rainfall during the June-September window is forecast to be 105% of the long-term average, according to Ravichandran. The forecast has a 5% margin of error, Bloomberg reported.
The summer monsoon is responsible for the bulk of India’s total annual rainfall, and is crucial for replenishing aquifers and supporting farming activity. It occurs when wind currents shift to blowing from the southwest, bringing humid air to the country where it warms over land, rising to form clouds and then falling as rain.
Besides watering fields directly and ensuring adequate soil moisture, seasonal monsoon rains are also critical for replenishing reservoirs used to irrigate mainly winter-sown crops. By contrast, insufficient rain causes water shortages, crimps harvests and raises imports of some commodities.
Good news for farmers
The official forecast for an above-normal monsoon will relieve farmers who have been grappling with the early onset of summer. The IMD expects an above-normal number of heatwave days during the hot season from April to June.
Earlier this month, the US Department of Agriculture’s international arm predicted a record wheat crop in India for a third year as higher-than-average rainfall last year improved soil moisture.
With an assumption of a normal monsoon this year, it also forecast a near-record rice harvest in the 2025-26 marketing year, which begins on October 1.
Last year’s monsoon rains were 108% of the long-term average, according to the weather department, making it the best rainy season in four years in a boost to crops. That followed the weakest rainy season in half a decade in 2023.
