Wheat yield to be below govt forecast: Analysts
The agriculture ministry has stuck to its initial projection of total output at a record 112.18 million tonne while acknowledging reports of crop damage in states such as Punjab and Haryana.
Private crop forecasters have predicted far lower wheat output this year than the government’s estimates following a prolonged spell of rain and storms in key producing states last month. They, however, added that there’s unlikely to be any serious shortages since the grain’s export is banned.
The agriculture ministry has stuck to its initial projection of total output at a record 112.18 million tonne while acknowledging reports of crop damage in states such as Punjab and Haryana.
Estimates released by Agri Watch on behalf of the Rollers Flour Millers Association of India on Saturday pegged total production at 102.24 million tonne, 8.9% lower than the official projection. Agri Watch reduced its output figures from 104.24 million tonne to 102.24 million tonne due to “unseasonal rains and hailstorm” in March, it said in its update.
The estimates are based on a two-stage survey across 80 wheat-growing districts in nine states. These are Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.
The government expects only a “marginal” loss in wheat output due to untimely rain last month and the world’s second largest grower is still on track to harvest 112 million tonne, Union food secretary Sanjeev Chopra said on March 4. Chopra had said an expansion in acreage and higher yields in states not affected by storms will offset the impact of damage in states that faced bad weather.
{{/usCountry}}The government expects only a “marginal” loss in wheat output due to untimely rain last month and the world’s second largest grower is still on track to harvest 112 million tonne, Union food secretary Sanjeev Chopra said on March 4. Chopra had said an expansion in acreage and higher yields in states not affected by storms will offset the impact of damage in states that faced bad weather.
{{/usCountry}}IGrain Pvt Ltd and Comtrade India Ltd, major grain and oilseed trading firms, have both said in separate updates that India’s total output of wheat is likely to be 104 million tonne.
{{/usCountry}}IGrain Pvt Ltd and Comtrade India Ltd, major grain and oilseed trading firms, have both said in separate updates that India’s total output of wheat is likely to be 104 million tonne.
{{/usCountry}}The United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service, whose estimates are keenly watched by global commodity markets, on Sunday estimated India’s wheat output this year at 108 million tonne, or 3.5% lower than what the government has predicted.
{{/usCountry}}The United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service, whose estimates are keenly watched by global commodity markets, on Sunday estimated India’s wheat output this year at 108 million tonne, or 3.5% lower than what the government has predicted.
{{/usCountry}}“FAS New Delhi (Post) forecasts India’s market (MY) 2023/2024 (April-March) wheat production at 108 million metric tons (MMT) resulting from 31.9 million hectares. Crop performance is better compared to the MY 2022/2023 harvest of 100 MMT arising from 30.5 million hectares,” the USDA’s world grain update said.
“Private estimates of wheat output have always been on the lower side. Since there is an export ban on wheat and procurement requirement is less this year, India is unlikely to see any serious shortages,” said Rahul Chouhan of IGrain.
The Centre has targeted to procure 34.15 million tonne of wheat this year. Procurement refers to the Centre’s purchase of cereals at minimum support prices, which are then distributed to nearly 800 million beneficiaries of the National Food Security Act.
The government will need to procure less this year because it has scrapped the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana, a pandemic relief scheme for free food. Instead, the Centre proposes to give grains under the public distribution system free of cost this year.
Last year, a heatwave in March crimped wheat output by nearly 2% to 107 million tonne, stoking shortages and food inflation, amid a global cereal crisis due to the Ukraine conflict. The shortfall had plunged the Centre’s procurement of wheat to a 15-year-low to just 18 million tonne.
“Haryana has said 20% of wheat area suffered crop losses, while Punjab government has said 40% of the wheat area suffered crop loss. The Centre has claimed despite these losses, we will have a bumper harvest of 112 million tonne. That is strange,” said Ramandeep Singh Mann, an independent farm expert.