Islamabad remains on edge as Imran faces biggest test since taking office

Political commentator Mehmal Sarfraz said things had come to this because Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s allies and even some members of the PTI haven’t been treated well by the government.

Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan is facing his greatest test since assuming office more than three years ago in the form of a vote of confidence in Parliament on March 28, with the odds decidedly not appearing to be in his favour.

Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan.

Islamabad has been on edge for the past few weeks as the government led by Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party repeatedly squared off with the opposition Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), which has the support of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Awami National Party, and the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam faction led by Maulana Fazlur Rehman.

The no-confidence motion, signed by about 100 opposition lawmakers, was submitted to the National Assembly or lower house of parliament on March 8 by the PPP and Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q). In an apparent bid to stymie the vote of confidence, the PTI announced on Sunday it would bring together one million people for a public gathering at a square right outside Parliament in Islamabad on March 27, a day before the vote.

Opposition leaders have contended that the PDM has the support of some 160 opposition lawmakers as well as the backing of 40 more MPs, including dissidents from the PTI – more than adequate to unseat Khan as Prime Minister in the 336-member house.

Amid the uncertainty, the chief Pakistani military spokesman, Maj Gen Babar Iftikhar, told a media briefing last Thursday that the army was neutral on the issue of politics. “I have said it earlier that the army has nothing to do with politics. It is better for all of us to avoid unnecessary speculation on this matter,” he said.

A political analyst in Islamabad, who preferred not to be named, said the military’s position has added to the current state of uncertainty. “The army is like the gravitational force in Pakistan’s politics. Everything gravitates towards it and all the political players are just satellites,” he said.

According to the buzz in Islamabad’s political circles, Khan is on a sticky wicket, and this is reflected in his recent public outbursts. In an apparent dig at the army, Khan told a public gathering on Friday that “only animals are neutral”. He added, “Human beings pick a side and stand with truth.”

Khan also challenged the opposition to move the no-confidence motion against him in the National Assembly so that he could take the wickets of PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari, PML-N leader Shehbaz Sharif and Fazlur Rehman “with a single delivery”.

But Khan appears to be losing even the support of key allies such as the PML-Q, which is part of the government at the centre and in Punjab. Senior PLM-Q leader Chaudhry Parvez Elahi, whose son is a federal minister, said in a TV interview this week that the opposition has the support of “more than the required” lawmakers to pass the no-confidence motion.

Political commentator Mehmal Sarfraz said things had come to this because Khan’s allies and even some members of the PTI haven’t been treated well by the government. “No wonder then that the Prime Minister has had to make personal trips to Lahore to meet the PML-Q leadership and to Karachi to meet Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) leaders, and even go to the Parliament Lodges to meet Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) and Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) leaders. It seems as if the government took them for granted,” she said.

Analysts believe the PTI government agreed on holding a vote of confidence on March 28 so that it could use the intervening period to try to convince its allies in the ruling coalition, such as MQM, PML-Q and GDA, to remain on Khan’s side.

Some believe the PTI is also using this time to mend fences with the powerful military. Ties between Khan and the military establishment were affected when the Prime Minister held up the appointment of a new Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief for weeks last year.

According to insiders, Khan dragged his feet on making a formal announcement about the next ISI chief for various reasons. Some said Khan believed the then ISI chief, Lt Gen Faiz Hameed, should remain because of the role he played in shaping developments in Afghanistan. Others contended Khan’s wife, a pirni or spiritual guide, had suggested the time was not auspicious to make a change in the ISI. Khan also reportedly favours a proposal to make Hameed the next army chief.

The army was upset as it had already made an official announcement in early October last year naming Lt Gen Nadeem Ahmed Anjum as the new ISI chief. Khan approved Anjum’s appointment weeks later.

If the PTI and the opposition PDM array their supporters against each other in Islamabad, as it now appears, Pakistan’s politics could take yet another messy turn into further uncertainty.

Murtaza Solangi, the executive editor of Nayadaur Media and a leading Pakistani political commentator, said he believes the current spell of uncertainty will end soon.

“Imran Khan is most likely to be dethroned and his party will collapse like the king’s parties of the past. Even if he survives, though the chances are very remote, he will be too wounded and limp along to the election cycle. His goose is pretty much cooked,” he said.

Solangi also believes a change in Pakistan could open the door for better ties with India. “India-Pakistan relations are currently in a complete dead zone. The personal attacks between Imran Khan and Narendra Modi have buried any chances of revival. With a change of government, there is a chance of minute incremental revival. No major breakthrough is possible but both countries could come out of a cul de sac,” he said.