Widespread and heavy rains are likely over parts of north and central India in the next two to three days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.
“A fresh low pressure area is likely to develop over northeast Bay of Bengal around August 4 and is likely to become more marked subsequently,” said the IMD bulletin.
Fairly widespread rainfall, with isolated “heavy to very heavy falls”, are likely over Punjab, Haryana, HP, Uttarakhand, east Rajasthan, west UP, MP, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Telangana, Vidarbha, central Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa and the Gujarat region in the next two to three days.
“Isolated extremely heavy falls are also likely over north Konkan and Ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra during the next three days,” it added.
There is 9% deficiency in monsoon rains as on August 1 over the long period average (LPA) during the monsoon months in the 1951-2000 period, with the highest in peninsular India at 19%. Rainfall over the country is likely to be 100% of the LPA in August and September with an error margin of +/-8%, the IMD said on Thursday evening. In its long range forecast for the second half of the monsoon season, the IMD said rainfall in August is likely to be 99%, with +/-9% error margin. It also reiterated its earlier forecast for the June-September monsoon season to be 96% of LPA.
On El Nino, the IMD report said, “Currently, the sea surface temperatures as well as the atmospheric conditions over equatorial Pacific Ocean indicate El Nino Southern Oscillation neutral to borderline El Niño conditions. The latest forecasts… global models indicate that these conditions are likely to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season.” El Nino is a climate pattern characterised by above-normal sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which contributes to above-normal land temperatures in the tropical latitudes.
{{/usCountry}}On El Nino, the IMD report said, “Currently, the sea surface temperatures as well as the atmospheric conditions over equatorial Pacific Ocean indicate El Nino Southern Oscillation neutral to borderline El Niño conditions. The latest forecasts… global models indicate that these conditions are likely to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season.” El Nino is a climate pattern characterised by above-normal sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which contributes to above-normal land temperatures in the tropical latitudes.
{{/usCountry}}El Nino years in India are linked to below-normal monsoon rains and higher than normal frequency of heat waves.
“Deficiency will remain even if there is 100% rainfall in the second half of the monsoon. The June deficiency has reduced after the July rains. We are maintaining the forecast of 93% of LPA for the entire monsoon season. Only 45 days are left for the season,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate change and meteorology, Skymet Weather.