Why Axis My India still hasn't released exit poll predictions for West Bengal

West Bengal voted in two phases on April 23 and 29 across 294 seats following extensive campaigning by both BJP and TMC. The results will be out on May 4.

With most exit polls predicting a close contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, with a possible edge to the former, attention is now on what pollster Axis My India will say about the high-stakes battle.

To form government in West Benagl, a party or alliance would need to touch the majority mark of 148 seats. (File Photo/Samir Jana/ HT photo)

Axis My India, one of the country’s most prominent pollsters, is yet to release its exit poll findings for West Bengal and is expected to share them sometime on Thursday, April 30. The exact timing, however, remains unclear.

Why is Bengal exit poll not out yet

In an interview with NDTV, Pradeep Gupta, founder of Axis My India, said his organisation may not release exit poll data for West Bengal on Thursday if it does not obtain a sufficiently representative sample.

"Bengal's people are afraid to speak up, the exit poll for Bengal may not come today. 60 per cent people did not speak up. We will try to speak with voters of second phase on Thursday," Gupta said on Wednesday.

West Bengal voted in two phases on April 23 and 29 across 294 seats following extensive campaigning by both BJP and TMC. The results will be out on May 4, with Trinamool looking for a straight fourth term in the state while the BJP aiming to create history by winning in Bengal for the first time. To form government in the state, a party or alliance would need to touch the majority mark of 148 seats.

What other pollsters predicted for West Bengal

According to Matrize, the TMC+ may fall short of the majority mark by a few seats, winning between 125 and 140 constituencies. It gave an edge to the BJP, predicting that it may win 146–161 seats, indicating a close contest between the two main parties.

A similar projection was given by pollster P-Marq, which said the BJP is expected to take the lead with 150–175 seats, while the incumbent Trinamool Congress may win 118–138 seats. It also projected that other parties could secure between two and six seats.

Polls Poll Diary predicted a clear win for the BJP, stating that the party may win 142–171 seats, while the TMC may fall well short of the majority mark with just 99–127 seats.

However, pollster People’s Pulse offered a different projection, suggesting that the incumbent TMC government may retain power in the state, though its tally could drop to 177–187 seats from the current 215 in the Assembly. It projected that the BJP would secure 95–110 seats.