A fresh western disturbance that was developing on Saturday will likely bring rain or snowfall to Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, but it will be so feeble that it will not trigger rain or have much of an impact on temperatures in the northern plains.
“This is a weak western disturbance and lies way above the Himalayas and will not bring much rain or change in temperature in the northern plains. The one coming after this will be a very active one,” said RK Jenamani, senior scientist atthe India Meteorological Department (IMD).
A western disturbance is a storm that develops over the Mediterranean and brings rainfall to the Indian subcontinent in the winters. Another such disturbance is expected to develop on 20 February -- the fifth this month. Usually, three to four western disturbances take place in February.
This weak western disturbance that developed on Saturday is the 15th this winter. Normally, only about eight such events occur during the season.
“This year, there has been an unusually high number of western disturbances, which have brought excess rainfall to most of the northern plains and the northeast,” said Jenamani.
With 10 such weather events triggering rains, last month was India’s wettest January in 15 years, with the northern plains and the northeastern states receiving excess rainfall. An average of 28.1 mm of rainfall was recorded in the country in January, according to data from the IMD.
{{/usCountry}}With 10 such weather events triggering rains, last month was India’s wettest January in 15 years, with the northern plains and the northeastern states receiving excess rainfall. An average of 28.1 mm of rainfall was recorded in the country in January, according to data from the IMD.
{{/usCountry}}The February 20 western disturbance is likely to bring rain to the western Himalayan region, north India, central and east India, lowering the temperature a little.
“The maximum temperature in NCR has been 25-26 degree Celsius, but after the western disturbance, the temperature might come down by a degree or two for a couple of days,” said Kuldeep Shrivastava, head of the Regional Weather Forecasting Centre. NCR is short for the National Capital Region.
The temperature will climb in the coming days because of a change in the wind direction. “Earlier, NCR was experiencing winds from mountains regions, while now the wind direction has changed and capital is experiencing winds from the Rajasthan side. Clear skies have helped the sunlight to pass through, helping the temperature to rise,” said Shrivastava.