Intense rain likely over east-central India, says IMD
Central and peninsular India have received the most rainfall in July and August mainly because the monsoon trough has remained south of its normal position
Intense and widespread rainfall was expected in east-central India over the next three to four days due to the likely development of depression over the north Bay of Bengal, India Meteorological Department said on Thursday.
Central and peninsular India have received the most rainfall in July and August mainly because the monsoon trough has remained south of its normal position and cyclonic circulations have also formed slightly to the south of the head Bay of Bengal.
A low-pressure system likely to intensify over the north Bay of Bengal is also expected to traverse central India and bring heavy rain to Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh. The Indo-Gangetic Plains have been largely dry since July and will continue to remain so in August.
There has been 9% excess monsoon rainfall in the country. Peninsular India has got 27% excess rain and central India 24%. There has been 1% excess rainfall in northwest India and 19% in east and northeast India. A 49% rain deficiency has been recorded in east Uttar Pradesh, 42% in the state’s western region, 42% in Bihar, 38% in Gangetic West Bengal, and 37% in Jharkhand.
In August, there has been 11.8% excess rain. Central India got 39% excess rain, and peninsular India 25.7%. There has been a 6.4% rain deficiency in northwest India and 32% in the east and northeast India.
IMD director general M Mohapatra said they are expecting heavy rain in Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh until August 22. “Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand may also get some rain. Due to another low-pressure system over southeast Pakistan, Saurashtra and Kutch are also likely to receive heavy rain. We do not expect any major rain in northwest India. The low-pressure area over the north Bay of Bengal is the fourth low-pressure system in August.”
Ananda Kumar Das, who is in charge of cyclones at IMD, said the location of the depression forming is not yet clear but it is likely to cover central India once again skipping Uttar Pradesh. “Almost all low-pressure areas that formed in July and August formed slightly south of their normal position. Hence, the monsoon trough also remained to the south of its normal position for most of the time in July and August. We cannot say immediately as to why all low-pressure systems this monsoon during July and August formed south of their normal position.”
Das said the position of the monsoon trough is highly influenced by upper air dynamics like the location of the Tibetan High, an area of high pressure over Tibet which influences the monsoon. “Climate experts will have to analyse this dominant pattern that we are seeing this year.”
The low-pressure area formed over northeast and adjoining areas of the eastcentral Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh, and Myanmar coasts on Thursday persisted over the same region. It was likely to move northwestwards and concentrate into a depression by Friday morning over the north Bay of Bengal and adjoining West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts. Thereafter, it is likely to move west-northwestwards across Gangetic West Bengal, north Odisha, Jharkhand, and north Chhattisgarh.