City may see 2,000 cases daily for the next 30 days: Mumbai civic chief

The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) expects to detect around 2,000 Covid-19 cases daily for the next 30 days, as it has planned to increase the number of

The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) expects to detect around 2,000 Covid-19 cases daily for the next 30 days, as it has planned to increase the number of tests to up to 14,000 a day amid the surge, civic chief Iqbal Singh Chahal said on Monday. Chahal, however, appealed to the citizens not to panic, as the rise would be a result of increased testing. He also said the civic body will conduct more RT-PCR instead of rapid antigen tests for accurate results.

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Chahal said Mumbai has the capacity to conduct up to 15,000 tests daily. BMC had started to conduct 9,000 cases from the last week of August. An addition of 2,000 cases daily would mean the city could hit the 200,000 mark by October 10. “The strategy of BMC to substantially ramp up the tests from an average testing of 7,619 daily in August to 10,000-14,000 in September, will result in an increase of average number of positive cases from 1,000-1,300 to 1,700-2,000 daily. We will effectively utilise the large number of vacant Covid beds available in the city of Mumbai. It will help accelerate the arrest of the spread of the virus in Mumbai. Therefore, it is humbly submitted that there should not be any panic created by sudden increase of positive number of cases in Mumbai,” said Chahal.

RT-PCR tests are considered the golden standard for Covid testing and the results come in 24-48 hours. In case of rapid antigen tests, the results are out in 30 minutes. According to BMC’s protocol, every negative symptomatic patient has to go through RT-PCR test.

He added: “We cannot use rapid antigen test kits randomly on the public or on frontline workers battling the pandemic. The positivity rate is 4% and 25% for rapid antigen and RT-PCR test, respectively. We will follow the latter. We have the capacity to conduct around 15,000 tests daily that include both the testing methods.”

BMC officials said over 820,000 Covid-19 tests have been conducted till date, including antigen tests that account for less than a lakh. Currently, the civic authorities are conducting up to 2,000 antigen tests daily.

Leader of Opposition in the Maharashtra legislative Assembly Devendra Fadnavis said the consistent low-testing figures led to high positivity and Covid-19-related fatality rates in the state and Mumbai. He cited the Delhi model in a bid to tackle the outbreak.

Putting this in context, Chahal said, “There are times when I am told that Delhi is doing more tests, as compared to Mumbai. Delhi has conducted over 16 lakh tests, including over five lakh via the RT-PCR method. So far, Mumbai has conducted over 800,000 tests, including over 90,000 rapid antigen tests. RT-PCR is giving more positivity rate. Simultaneously, we will also do antigen tests. But RT-PCR rates will be done in a more focused manner.”

The civic authorities said they are prepared for the surge. Chahal said, “We will be able to handle up to 4,000 Covid-19 cases daily. At least 60% to 70% positive cases are asymptomatic, requiring home quarantine only. The availability of beds for symptomatic positive cases in Mumbai will not be an issue at all, even if the number of positive cases, on an average, goes beyond 2,000 every day. It is also important to submit here that BMC is adding 250 additional ICU beds on the dashboard in next three days to ensure that at least 350+ ICU beds remain vacant every day, as an assurance to the citizens of Mumbai.”

Meanwhile, experts said increasing testing is the only way forward. Dr Kedar Toraskar, a member of Maharashtra’s Covid-19 task force said, “The way forward is testing, tracing, isolating and treating. We will have to keep doing this even after vaccine is out in the market. We also have to conduct more aggressive contact-tracing.”

Subhasree Ray, clinical nutritionist and public health professional, said, “Incremental testing is crucial to find all possible infections in a community. A five-day analysis from Mumbai revealed the average test positivity rate for Covid-19 was 17.96%. Increase in testing might lower this test positivity rate, will facilitate effective contact tracing, and allow the infected to get early treatment, thus decreasing the mortality rate. Currently, Mumbai’s fatality rate is 5.05%, whereas the national fatality rate is 1.7%.”