The recently concluded visit of the European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen — accompanied by 22 members of the 27-strong European Union (EU) College of Commissioners — to India was the first such visit to a non-European country since von der Leyen received the mandate afresh last year. The visit could potentially mark the beginning of a promising new era in India-Europe relations.
The visit took place against the backdrop of dramatic global developments and a fast-changing balance of power. The arrival of Donald Trump in the White House, and the near complete reversal in American foreign policy, has put the 80-year-old Euro-Atlantic alliance under immense and unprecedented stress. The new US administration has clearly stated, and Europe has equally clearly understood, that Washington won’t pay for Europe’s defence going forward. Europe is on its own. The Indian side too knows that its ability to count on the US for its defence and security is, at best, doubtful and, at worst, misplaced.
Trump has also infused a growing sense of angst in European minds — and to some extent in Indian minds too — about being sidelined from crucial great power conversations, which could have a more significant impact on Europe than India. Europe feels left out of the great power conversations particularly between the US and Russia; and India would feel uncomfortable if indeed China is invited to be part of those conversations. In this context, it is worth noting that the India-EU joint statement makes an explicit reference to Ukraine, emphasising “support for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine based on respect for international law, the principles of the UN Charter, and territorial integrity and sovereignty”.
If India’s dilemma during the Joe Biden administration was to carefully determine the extent of its partnership with the US in the Indo-Pacific vis-a-vis China and other domains of security, its primary concern, going forward, would be to determine whether the US has any interest at all in those domains. Put more bluntly, India has every reason to be concerned about the potential decline of its global profile in a Trumpian world. For Europe, on the other hand, while its dilemma under the Biden administration was to structure the nature of the Trans-Atlantic partnership’s involvement in world affairs, its worry today is about the very existence of such a partnership. While Europe is more worried about failing multilateralism, India is more concerned about the shrinking space available for multipolarity in a Trumpian world.
{{/usCountry}}If India’s dilemma during the Joe Biden administration was to carefully determine the extent of its partnership with the US in the Indo-Pacific vis-a-vis China and other domains of security, its primary concern, going forward, would be to determine whether the US has any interest at all in those domains. Put more bluntly, India has every reason to be concerned about the potential decline of its global profile in a Trumpian world. For Europe, on the other hand, while its dilemma under the Biden administration was to structure the nature of the Trans-Atlantic partnership’s involvement in world affairs, its worry today is about the very existence of such a partnership. While Europe is more worried about failing multilateralism, India is more concerned about the shrinking space available for multipolarity in a Trumpian world.
{{/usCountry}}Not too long ago, the EU and India were in some ways located on the opposite sides of a normative and geopolitical order in which the Europeans felt the need to moral-shame India and India found itself talking back. The two sides were talking at each other. But somewhat unexpectedly, both sides now find themselves sidelined, providing thereby a reason to engage with each other more openly, without the constraints of difficult history and scepticism. One of the reasons why India and Europe will grow closer in the days ahead is because much of the world they disagreed about no longer exists.
Therefore, if the two sides can keep aside their differences and engage in a realistic and purposeful dialogue, based on common interests, we might see the emergence of a major voice in the international system. India and Europe might still not agree on their respective visions for the world order, but their differences seem to pale in a world where the very presence of any order is doubtful.
A new partnership born out of crisis: India and the EU — both major consequential actors on the world stage — then, are looking for new strategic relevance and new strategic partners. The EU chief’s keynote speech which she delivered in a function organised by INDIA’S WORLD magazine was, in that sense, appropriately titled, “The Consequential Partnership: Reimagining and realigning EU-India ties for today’s world”. Von der Leyen told New Delhi’s strategic community and the diplomatic corps in her speech, “This world is fraught with danger. But I believe this modern version of great power competition is an opportunity for Europe and India to reimagine their partnership”.
The two sides have finally set a deadline — end of 2025 — to complete the ambitious free trade agreement. While a definitive deadline is important, it won’t be easy to meet it given the several hurdles which need to be overcome before the two sides can sign it. Top on New Delhi’s mind is the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) issue which has been a major stumbling block. Reports indicate that the European side is considering some modifications to concede to Indian demands.
From norm promotion to security partnership: On a more practical note, the main content of the India-EU relationship is poised for a sea change in the years to come, from norm promotion to a security-defence partnership. In her keynote speech at the event, von der Leyen announced “that we are exploring a future Security and Defence Partnership with India in the mould of the partnerships we have with Japan and South Korea”. This announcement is significant considering its potential to transform the regional security order in the Indo-Pacific, even if the US takes a back seat.
Happymon Jacob teaches India’s foreign policy at JNU and is the editor of INDIA’S WORLD magazine. The views expressed are personal