Samsung may soon lose its title of world’s top phone maker due to…
Samsung is forecast to grow by 4.6%, not enough to hold onto its market lead.
Samsung’s long reign as the world’s largest smartphone maker could soon come to an end. A new report by Counterpoint Research suggests that Apple is on track to overtake Samsung in 2025, powered by exceptional demand for the iPhone 17 series and a global upgrade cycle that is now kicking into high gear.
According to the analysis, cited by Bloomberg, Apple is expected to post a 10% year-over-year increase in iPhone shipments next year. Samsung, in comparison, is forecast to grow by 4.6%, not enough to hold onto its market lead. If projections hold, Apple will finish 2025 with a 19.4% global market share, reclaiming the No. 1 spot it briefly held in 2023.
iPhone 17 momentum is reshaping the market
The report comes after a series of strong indicators for Apple. In the first month of iPhone 17 sales, Apple recorded a 22% jump, even as the overall market dropped nearly 3%. A separate Counterpoint study found Apple’s October sales grew 37% year-over-year, compared with the broader market’s 8% rise.
Analysts say the strength of the iPhone 17 lineup, particularly early interest in the iPhone 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max, has pushed Apple’s outlook sharply higher. The iPhone Air’s lukewarm response hasn’t been enough to slow the company down.
A massive upgrade cycle is fueling Apple’s rise
One of the biggest drivers behind Apple’s expected surge is timing. Millions of people who bought smartphones during the pandemic are now due for an upgrade, and Apple stands to benefit more than any other player.
Counterpoint also points to the booming second-hand iPhone market: 358 million used iPhones were sold between 2023 and mid-2025, creating an enormous base of users likely to transition to a new model soon.
Apple expected to stay No. 1 for years
Even with Samsung’s strong 2025 pipeline, including new foldables, mid-range refreshes and AI-driven features, analysts predict Apple’s momentum will carry well into the decade. Counterpoint expects Apple to retain its lead until at least 2029, boosted by future launches such as the company’s first foldable iPhone and the rumoured iPhone 17e.
The global smartphone market is projected to grow a modest 3.3% in 2025, making Apple’s performance even more notable. With the holiday season already shaping up to be Apple’s “biggest ever,” the shift in market leadership may happen sooner rather than later.
{{/usCountry}}The global smartphone market is projected to grow a modest 3.3% in 2025, making Apple’s performance even more notable. With the holiday season already shaping up to be Apple’s “biggest ever,” the shift in market leadership may happen sooner rather than later.
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