Toronto: After facing the prospect of a historic collapse under the leadership of Justin Trudeau, the ruling Liberal Party may be on course for an epic comeback under new Prime Minister Mark Carney and potentially heading towards garnering a majority in the next federal election.
According to a survey released on Monday by the non-profit, non-partisan Angus Reid Institute (ARI), the Liberals are “surging to a five-point vote intention advantage nationally after trailing by 29 points in late December”.
“Were these numbers to hold, with the Liberals at 42% in vote intention, what was a tired, discardable brand just three months ago would be on its way to a fourth term, this time with a majority,” it added.
In December, as an internal revolt grew within the party over Trudeau’s leadership, the opposition Conservative Party had 45% support as against 16% for the Liberals. At present, the Conservatives have dropped to 37% backing.
The Liberals have not been in majority territory since 2016, as per ARI data. That was just after Trudeau led the party to a majority in 2015 and formed the government for the first time. However, in the two succeeding elections, in 2019 and 2021, he was unable to repeat that feat and headed minority governments.
Plenty of factors are playing into the reversal of political fortune. Trudeau’s departure is among them, as are the threats from US President Donald Trump, which include those of tariffs and that of annexing Canada as America’s 51st State. That Trump bump began to take shape in January soon after Trudeau announced his intent to resign once his successor was selected by the party. That occurred on March 9 with Carney capturing the leadership with a landslide victory, with nearly 86% of registered members voting for him. He was sworn in as PM three days later.
{{/usCountry}}Plenty of factors are playing into the reversal of political fortune. Trudeau’s departure is among them, as are the threats from US President Donald Trump, which include those of tariffs and that of annexing Canada as America’s 51st State. That Trump bump began to take shape in January soon after Trudeau announced his intent to resign once his successor was selected by the party. That occurred on March 9 with Carney capturing the leadership with a landslide victory, with nearly 86% of registered members voting for him. He was sworn in as PM three days later.
{{/usCountry}}Trump is “generating a wave of Canadian pride and nationalism with tariff and annexation threats”, ARI noted.
Carney riffed on those threats from Washington during a press conference in London on Monday, as he embarked on his first foreign trip, covering France and the United Kingdom. He said, “We’ve called out those comments, they’re disrespectful, they’re not helpful and they need stop before any broader conversation about our relationship.”
Carney “is seen as best to handle the ongoing trade war and Trump’s annexation threats by a majority of Canadians”, ARI stated.
Another reason is the collapse of the New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh. While it enjoyed 21% backing in December, that number has fallen to just nine per cent currently. Most of that support has transferred to the Liberals.
While the federal poll is scheduled for October, Carney is expected to call for a snap election soon, and that could be held towards the end of April or early May, as per Canadian media reports.