The asteroid 2024 YR4, initially feared to be a “city-killer”, is no longer considered a serious threat to Earth. However, new research suggests it still has a slim chance of colliding with the moon.
According to astronomer Andrew Rivkin, as reported by New Scientist, the asteroid has a 2% chance of striking the moon in 2032. This marks a slight increase from the 1.7% chance of hitting the moon estimated by NASA in February. “There still remains a very small chance for asteroid 2024 YR4 to impact the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032. That probability is currently 1.7%,” NASA said.
2024 YR4, nearly the size of a football field, was detected in December 2024. At that time, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies estimated a 3% chance of it hitting Earth in 2032. However, within weeks, NASA revised the risk down to 0.28%.
Further analysis by the James Webb Space Telescope in late March confirmed the asteroid now has a near-zero chance of impacting Earth.
Webb telescope will study ‘city killer’ asteroid
The James Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid 2024 YR4 again in May 2025 before it moves into the outer solar system for several years, NASA said. As a powerful observatory, the Webb telescope studies faint objects in the universe, and its data is used by multiple international space agencies.
{{/usCountry}}The James Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid 2024 YR4 again in May 2025 before it moves into the outer solar system for several years, NASA said. As a powerful observatory, the Webb telescope studies faint objects in the universe, and its data is used by multiple international space agencies.
{{/usCountry}}According to NASA, asteroid impacts have shaped the moon’s surface for billions of years and have also caused craters on Earth. The American Museum of Natural History notes that asteroids struck both Earth and the moon more frequently billions of years ago, but such incidents have significantly decreased over time, resulting in the "relatively peaceful present."
It remains unclear what would happen if an asteroid of this size were to hit the moon.
The CBS News report stated that a previous analysis suggested an impact on Earth could have "truly catastrophic" effects, though they would be localised.
“It wouldn't affect the global climate, but it would certainly be a disaster of every proportion. So we're all hoping that doesn't happen,” the report said.