Benjamin Netanyahu faces the ultimate test for power as Israel heads to the polls on October 27. The elections in Israel, which are the first to be held since the war in Gaza broke out in 2023, come as the prime minister faces a corruption trial, an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court and multiple wars.
In the past three years, Israel has been at the forefront of at least four wars - Gaza Strip against Hamas, Lebanon against Hezbollah, Iran in 2025 and Iran again in 2026, but this time, alongside the United States.
Along with this and a corruption trial, the Israeli prime minister is eyeing a third consecutive term, and his fourth overall.
Deep Dive
Can Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested if he loses Israel’s election?
Can countries arrest Netanyahu under the ICC warrant if he travels there?
Could Netanyahu go to prison for his corruption cases if he loses office?
With the polls set to begin today, a key question remains - Will 'Bibi' be able to preserve his political power? And if he loses, can he be tried for the charges against him?
The cases against Netanyahu
The corruption trial at home
The prime minister is on trial in three cases. These cases accuse Netanyahu of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. As per the Israel Policy Forum, the Israeli PM was indicted in the following cases -
- Case 1000 (fraud, breach of trust): Netanyahu and his family members allegedly requested and accepted gifts from Israeli businessman Arnon Milchan and Australian businessman James Packer in exchange for favours.
- Case 2000 (fraud, breach of trust): Netanyahu allegedly attempted to accept a bribery deal from Yediot Ahronot publisher Arnon Mozes, in which Netanyahu would try to limit the circulation of Israel Hayom, a rival publication, in exchange for favourable coverage in Yediot Ahronot, which is considered Israel's largest paid newspaper.
- Case 4000 (bribery, fraud, breach of trust): As communications minister, Netanyahu allegedly accepted a bribery deal from media mogul Shaul Elovitch in which he made regulatory decisions that financially benefited the mogul in exchange for positive coverage on Walla News, which is an Israeli web portal and online news outlet.
In 2020, then-Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit drew up a conflict-of-interest arrangement, barring Netanyahu from involvement in or influence over matters that would affect his trial.
{{/usCountry}}In 2020, then-Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit drew up a conflict-of-interest arrangement, barring Netanyahu from involvement in or influence over matters that would affect his trial.
{{/usCountry}}These included appointments to law enforcement, the Supreme Court, and the Jerusalem District Court, introducing legislation that could affect proceedings, and influencing ministers and officials related to his trial.
However, after returning to power with the Likud-led coalition, the Israeli Prime Minister launched a judicial overhaul intended to curb the judiciary's influence over public policy and lawmaking.
The overhaul, which also called for the limiting of the Supreme Court's powers for judicial review, led to mass nationwide protests and a general strike.
Netanyahu's overhaul remains in a partial and contested state, as many of the key measures struck by the court, and with the start of the war in Gaza, the judicial overhaul took a backseat.
In December 2024, Netanyahu took the stand at Jerusalem District Court in the corruption case, and amid his trial, Israel also found itself engaged in two other wars - one in Lebanon against Hezbollah and the other against Iran with the US.
The prime minister has denied all charges against him and referred to the cases and indictment as a "witch hunt." Backing Netanyahu is US President Donald Trump, who has called for a pardon as Bibi is a "great hero, who has done so much" for Israel, and a "warrior".
Also Read | 'Vote for Bibi for PM': Trump renews pitch for Netanyahu
War crimes in Gaza and an ICC warrant
On November 21, 2024, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu. The Israeli prime minister was accused of carrying out alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity against the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip.
The charges against Netanyahu came in the midst of the allegations of Israeli genocide in Gaza, which escalated after a terror attack in southern Israel by the militant group Hamas, which killed around 1,200 people. Along with Netanyahu, a warrant was also issued for former defence minister Yoav Gallant
Netanyahu has denied the charges against him and defined Israeli actions in the Palestinian territory as “acts of self-defence.”
The charges filed by the Hague include use of starvation as a method of warfare, intentional targeting of civilians, murder, persecution and other inhumane acts. The ICC also stated that Israel's blocking of humanitarian aid and food, and cutting electricity and water to Gaza, constituted crimes against humanity.
Depsite a truce brokered by the US and President Donald Trump, Israel continues its operations in Gaza. Since October 8, 2023, the death toll in the Palestinian territory stands at 74,498 people, based on information issued by the Palestinian health ministry in October 2026. However, the toll is expected to be higher than what has been recorded as attacks continue even three years later.
Along with the ICC arrest warrant, the Netanyahu government also faces a trial at the International Court of Justice, which was led by South Africa, accusing Israel of committing genocide in the Gaza Strip.
The case, filed by South Africa in 2023, alleges that the Israeli military's actions in the Gaza Strip were in violation of the 1948 Genocide Convention.
Along with South Africa, several other nations have also backed the case against Israel, including Spain, Brazil, Pakistan, Ireland, Malaysia, Jordan, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and the Arab League.
Over the past two years, the ICJ has issued multiple warnings to Israel to prevent the violation of the Genocide Convention and called on the state to allow the movement of humanitarian aid into the war-torn strip.
However, Israel, with backing from the United States, has denied all allegations against it, maintaining that all actions were taken as part of self-defence measures after the Hamas terror attack.
Amid the ICJ case against the state and ICC cases against Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister also saw protests across the country from families of the hostages who were kidnapped by Hamas and discontent around the grave security failure, which led to the attack.
As per a poll published by Channel 12 in July, Netanyahu is neck-and-neck with his competitor, former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot. According to Channel 12, 38 per cent of the public would prefer to see Netanyahu continue leading the country, but 38 per cent would also want to see Eisenkot take over from the incumbent.
According to another poll by Channel 12 in October, Netanyahu is now behind Eisenkot, despite an endorsement from Trump. Another poll by Agam Labs, Netanyahu's far-right coalition is unlikely to survive the vote.
Can Netanyahu be arrested if he loses? It’s complicated
As Netanyahu tries to hang on to his power amid rising regional tensions and dissatisfaction at the domestic front, another key question has been raised - What happens to the cases against Netanyahu if he loses the October 27 vote?
As far as the ICC case is concerned, the top institution has issued an active warrant against the Israeli prime minister.
The ICC does not have its own independent police force and relies on the 124 Rome Statute, which requires member states to execute warrants and transfer suspects to the Hague.
While Israel is not a member of the ICC and rejects its jurisdiction, if Netanyahu, despite a win or a loss, travels to any of the ICC member nations, those nations are legally obligated to arrest him.
If Netanyahu loses, he also loses his diplomatic immunity. However, non-member or allied nations, such as the US, are unlikely to detain him.
Meanwhile, even if the Opposition wins the elections, it remains unlikely that a future Israeli government would hand over a former prime minister to an international tribunal.
On the other hand, when it comes to the corruption trial against the Israeli prime minister, Netanyahu can be jailed if he is convicted, and this will not depend on whether or not he secures another term. However, losing office does not itself make Netanyahu liable to imprisonment.
If he loses the vote, Netanyahu returns to citizen status, thus removing the buffer of the prime minister's office.