Decoding Donald Trump’s five policy passions and personnel
Donald Trump’s second term is marked by a sharper and more diverse agenda and the political mandate to implement this agenda
President Donald J Trump has articulated a wide set of political and policy interests and picked an ideologically committed and personally loyal set of personnel to implement his agenda. As he sets out to roll his executive orders on Day 1, here is a look at five Trump priorities, the political context, and key individuals in that domain:
Immigration
Context: Immigration to America from the southern border has a long history, but the surge in crossings under the Joe Biden presidency turned out to be among the biggest political liabilities for Democrats. Trump’s long-standing opposition to immigration has had two meanings for two audiences. To moderates, including legal immigrants, it appears like a reasonable call for secure borders and process. To racists and White supremacists, it appears like a call to protect the nation from outsiders, often Brown, Black and Asians.
Agenda: Trump’s 2024 win can be attributed partly to the anger against the rise in undocumented workers, the failure of public infrastructure to keep up, the perception of a close association between immigrants and crime, the perceived Democratic weakness in enforcing border controls, and a validation of Trump’s stated promise to act against illegal immigrants.
What form this promise of cracking down on immigration and immigrants takes, how far Trump goes with it, what is the resource base and logistical capacity of American law enforcement to sustain extreme measures without Congressional authorisation, what the Congress eventually authorises, the legal challenges and economic trade-offs, the impact on immigrant communities, and the response of other countries, will all be policy issues that will recur through his presidency. But starting with an executive order on Day 1, expect what the incoming team says is a “shock and awe” operation of closing the border, raids in big cities, and deportation of those with criminal records.
People: Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy Chief of staff and homeland security advisor, Kristi Noem, secretary of the department of homeland security, and Tom Homan, the “border czar” who will run immigration and customs enforcement (ICE), are Trump’s key policy and operational drivers on border and immigration issues.
National security and diplomacy
Context: Trump has a big picture story about American national security in the last decade, of how he secured and strengthened America and kept the world at peace while under Biden, wars broke out and the US was mocked. And now, in Trump’s narrative, he is back. America is strong and respected again.
Agenda: In more specific terms, Trump has the opportunity to reshape the world in ways that other presidents haven’t. In West Asia, whether he can get the ceasefire extended into something more enduring, whether there can be a more secure Israel but also a more viable pathway to Palestinian statehood or whether Israel has a free run to do what it wishes to do in Gaza and West Bank, whether he can facilitate a process of normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and whether he does a deal with Iran or engages in military action or does something in the middle, are all questions that will reshape the region for decades.
In Ukraine, how Trump reconciles his seemingly genuine desire for peace with a roadmap which secures Ukrainian sovereignty, satisfies but also tames Russian ambitions, reassures Europe, retains American credibility, and doesn’t embolden China is to be seen. And on China, whether he maintains a hard security and economic posture, intensifies the conflictual and competitive approach or seeks tactical accommodation, how he engages with allies and partners, which sector he intends to compete harder on, how he rebuilds America’s own competitiveness and military-industrial base, and how he responds to the inevitable string of crises that will erupt will determine global geopolitics.
People: Michael Waltz as national security advisor, Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, and John Ratcliffe as CIA director — all China hawks — will be among Trump’s principal advisors on the world. FBI director Kash Patel will provide the domestic intelligence. If confirmed, Tulsi Gabbard as head of national intelligence will channel the work of 17 agencies. Pete Hegseth as secretary of defense will run the Pentagon but it is likely that others in the department, including undersecretary of defense for policy Elbridge Colby will have a say on macro policy approach. Then, there are multiple special envoys that Trump has appointed, from Steve Witkoff for Middle East to Rick Grenell for special missions. Elon Musk, as a close advisor and now someone who has taken an active interest in shaping European politics and as someone with business interests in multiple jurisdictions, will have a voice.
Tariffs and manufacturing
Context: Trump believes that with free trade agreements and globalisation, America opened its markets to the world and that China lured investment with cheap labour and unfair practices. It then flooded American markets with goods, while protecting its own markets with higher tariffs. American producers got destroyed. Many countries (including India, in Trump’s narrative) exploited the US similarly. This is at the root of American de-industrialisation and the path back is through high tariffs, among the most beautiful words in the dictionary as Trump views it.
Agenda: Trump inaugurated a trade war with China and trade disputes with a range of other countries, including India, in his first term. During the campaign, he promised a 60% tariff on goods from China and 20% from everywhere else, across the board. After the elections, he threatened tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada for non-economic ends. And it remains unclear whether Trump will, as he said, impose a higher tariffs on China and increase tariffs on everyone else; if so, to what extent; if not, will his tariffs be selective in terms of countries or sectors. And then, depending on the nature of the tariffs, there is uncertainty about the implications for inflation. Some of these will be visible in any executive order he issues on Day 1 — Trump has already announced he will create an external revenue service on Monday — while some of these issues will be contingent on bilateral agreements; and some will be recurring themes of policy debates.
People: Peter Navarro will serve as Trump’s senior counselor for trade and manufacturing. Trump’s trade representative will be Jamieson Greer, a protege of Trump’s last trade czar Robert Lighthizer who doesn’t have a formal rank but remains a part of the Trump universe. All these advisors are strong China hawks who share Trump’s belief in the power of tariffs to balance America’s trade deficit and bring back manufacturing. But the debate on tariffs will also see Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, and Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, who have to worry about market and industry reaction, weigh in.
Deregulation
Context: American conservatives believe that big government is fiscally ruinous and makes people dependent. American libertarians believe that expansive government is the biggest threat to individual freedom and are convinced that a vast apparatus of bureaucrats are unaccountable for their decisions. The Supreme Court has said that executive or regulatory agencies don’t have the power to interpret rules and law, whittling their authority. And Trump himself is skeptical of career bureaucrats and their loyalties.
Agenda: One of Trump’s big new decisions was to form the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), an advisory body outside government, to recommend ways to cut wasteful spending and remove unnecessary regulations. The political weight of the body came from its newly appointed chief, Elon Musk. Musk has come to the position with his wealth and power and proximity to the president, but also his anger with American regulators for what he considers delays in approvals or state investigations into his businesses.
He is backed by both his tech crowd and other libertarians who have come to the position with a far more ideologically well developed argument against the regulatory state. This also aligns with fiscal conservatives who believe that dealing with the national debt and deficit requires major spending cuts. And it aligns with Trump’s core group of ideologically committed who see in career bureaucrats with career protections the real impediment to implementing his agenda, and want him to issue an order (Schedule F) that strips them from these protections.
People: Musk is of course the central architect of the deregulation agenda. While his co-chair at DOGE is Vivek Ramaswamy, who has provided the intellectual framework for the agenda, there is a possibility of the latter quitting DOGE to make a run for the governor of Ohio. The head of the office of Budget and Management, Russel Vought, will work closely with Musk. Stephen Miller will have a voice in these debates as well, as will Marjorie Taylor Green, the far-Right House representative, who heads the DOGE caucus in the House and Joni Ernst, who runs the caucus in the Senate.
AI and crypto policy
Context: Perhaps among the most significant ways in which Trump’s second term is different from the first is the support of Silicon Valley giants. Three issues in particular have motivated them. The first is crypto with the industry backing Trump in the hope of a clearer and more liberal regulatory architecture. The second is AI. With OpenAI chief Sam Altman predicting that the world will see artificial generative intelligence in the course of the Trump presidency, the industry is on the cusp of a transformative breakthrough and smaller tech companies are resistant to regulation at this stage. And the third constituency is those furious with Federal Trade Commission’s Lina Khan for her strong approach against monopolistic practices.
Agenda: On crypto, Trump, who now has his own crypto business interests, is expected to issue an executive order that lays out a more liberal regime, that potentially announces a strategic reserve of crypto for the US, enables banking access, institutes clearer disclosure norms to build confidence in the industry and more. On AI, expect a full scale State offensive in backing American industry, from ensuring a more permissive regime for energy production that will help meet computing needs to removing regulatory obstacles. And on competition, expect a tussle between the economic populists who continue to see Big Tech as a source of trouble and business conservatives who want a more relaxed approach to regulation.
People: David Sacks is the official AI and crypto czar in the Trump administration, with Sriram Krishnan joining his team on AI policy. Michael Kratsios, a former managing director of an AI infrastructure company, will lead Trump’s office of science and technology policy, while Lynne Parker will lead his council of advisors on science and tech. Given Trump’s strong cohort of tech advisors, expect Marc Andreessen, Peter Thiel and of course Elon Musk to play more than an advisory role on these issues.
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Trump is also invested in a range of other policy issues from energy to dismantling diversity initiatives. There will also be a core set of Trump advisors who will have a voice on all issues. These will include his vice president JD Vance, chief of staff Susie Wiles, and members of his family, particularly Donald Trump Jr, Eric Trump and Lara Trump, and perhaps more informally this time, Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump. Where Trump succeeds, and what the intended and unintended consequences of his moves are, will shape America and the world.