Earth likely to warm more than 2 degree Celsius by 2100 – experts

Not meeting Paris Climate deal target of keeping global temperatures below 2 degrees could have dramatic consequences on livelihoods.

World temperatures are likely to rise by more than 2° Celsius this century, surpassing a “tipping point” that a global climate deal aims to avert, scientists said on Monday.

The file photo shows desert sand structures, river systems and complex cloud patterns. (NASA)

A study published in the journal Nature Climate Change shows a 90% chance that temperatures will increase this century by 2° to 4.9° Celsius.

Researchers at the University of Washington found only a 5% chance that warming could be at or below 2° Celsius – one of the targets set by the 2015 Paris climate deal on limiting emissions of greenhouse gases that warm the planet.

Missing that target would have dramatic consequences on people’s livelihoods – such as prolonged periods of drought and rising sea levels – said Adrian Raftery, the lead author of the study and a professor at the University of Washington.

The study uses statistical projections based on total world population, GDP per capita and the amount of carbon emitted for each dollar of economic activity, known as carbon intensity.

“Our analysis shows that the goal of 2° is very much a best-case scenario,” said Raftery. “It is achievable, but only with major, sustained effort on all fronts over the next 80 years.”

Ramping up efforts to improve carbon efficiency are key to limit future warming, Raftery told the Thomson Reuters Foundation in a phone interview.

“Countries need to change the economic incentives for producing carbon – for example by introducing a carbon tax – and encourage innovation that would improve energy efficiency,” he said.

“We should be learning more from countries that are particularly carbon-efficient, like France, which has a very low-carbon transport infrastructure.”