Benjamin Netanyahu is set to face one of the most consequential elections of his career as Israel heads to the polls on October 27. The vote could either revive his political career or mark the end of his long dominance of Israeli politics.
Netanyahu, nicknamed “Bibi”, has long portrayed himself as “Mr Security”, the leader best equipped to protect Israel. But Hamas' unprecedented attack on October 7, 2023, dealt a major blow to that image and raised questions about Israel’s security failures and the Netanyahu government’s accountability.
The wars that followed, including the confrontation with Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the joint strikes with the United States on Iran, have further divided people's opinion of him. Netanyahu also continues to face domestic controversies – demands for an independent inquiry into the Hamas attack, a corruption trial and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant over alleged war crimes in Gaza.
Deep Dive
Why is Israel’s election seen as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu?
How could Netanyahu’s opponents win more seats but still fail to replace him?
How do Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot differ on Gaza and West Bank settlements?
However, criticism does not necessarily mean Netanyahu will lose the election. The key question is whether his opponents can turn that discontent into votes and unseat the incumbent prime minister.
Why Netanyahu is vulnerable
The October 7 attack:
Hamas-led militants killed around 1,200 people and took 251 hostages during their October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. The unprecedented assault exposed major security failures and dealt a serious blow to Netanyahu's image as a leader capable of protecting the country.
A recent report by Israeli newspaper Haaretz, which said the United Arab Emirates had directly warned Netanyahu about the Hamas attack 10 days before it took place, has further complicated his position. Netanyahu had reportedly “reacted with relative calm”, assuring UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed that Israel was prepared for any scenario. Netanyahu’s office later dismissed the report as an “absolute lie”.
Critics have accused the Netanyahu government of effectively blocking an independent inquiry into the October 7 attack. In December 2025, Israel’s parliament gave initial approval to a government-backed inquiry, granting lawmakers the authority to select panel members and Netanyahu’s cabinet the power to determine its mandate.
Critics, as cited by Reuters, said the move bypassed Israel’s 1968 Commission of Inquiry Law, under which the president of the Supreme Court appoints an independent panel.
What public poll says:
Public opinion surveys suggest that the October 7 attack remains a key factor in voters’ decisions. A September 2026 survey by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) found that 68% of Jewish respondents and 32% of Arab respondents considered the attack a “very central” or “fairly central” factor in deciding how to vote.
Foreign policy and security were also important considerations. Among Jewish respondents, 20.5% said a party’s stance on these issues was the second-most important factor in their voting decision. In comparison, 31.5% of Arab respondents considered it the most important factor.
Other issues in focus:
Yet, security is not the only issue shaping this election. The exemption of ultra-Orthodox Jews from military service, Netanyahu’s push to limit the powers of the Israeli Supreme Court, rising cost of living, and concerns over stability also play a fair part in shaping the upcoming polls. The issue of service exemption for the ultra-Orthodox Jews particularly stands out, with supporters reportedly citing full-time religious study and critics arguing the unfair addition of the military burden onto others, especially during prolonged conflicts.
Legal troubles for Netanyahu:
An international arrest warrant and a long-running trial have further compounded Netanyahu’s troubles in this election. The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant in Netanyahu’s name on November 21, 2024, over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Separately, Netanyahu is also facing a long-running corruption trial. He was indicted in 2019 on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, all of which he denies.
Therefore, Netanyahu not only has to defend his reputation, but he also has to convince the Israeli population that he remains the person best suited to defend the country and retain the support he needs to govern Israel.
How the vote works and can the Opposition beat Netanyahu
How the election works:
It all boils down to which party can assemble a majority required to govern Israel. The 120-member Knesset, Israel’s parliament, requires a majority of 61 seats to form the government.
Israelis vote for a party, not a candidate. A party must cross an electoral threshold of 3.25 per cent to enter the parliament, and if it fails to do so, its votes are discarded.
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No party has ever won an outright majority in Israel, so parties negotiate to form a coalition. This implies that a party may emerge as the largest in the parliament, and its leader might still not become the prime minister.
When the Knesset was dissolved in July this year, Netanyahu’s coalition held 60 of the 120 seats, while the opposition held 59 seats. The remaining one seat was unaffiliated.
Netanyahu’s opposition - key players:
Now, Netanyahu faces opposition from all sides – the political centre, the left and the right.
Political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg, as cited by Al Jazeera, described the Likud leader’s legacy in the words of former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher, who once said that the opposition’s rightward tilt was her greatest legacy. The analyst said, “Netanyahu’s legacy lies with the opposition. All the main contenders are right-wing, militaristic and ultimately racist. That’s Netanyahu’s legacy.”
Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, whose son was killed in Gaza, has been emerging as Netanyahu’s key rival in the upcoming elections. Eisenkot, who was also a part of Netanyahu’s war cabinet before quitting in 2024, founded Yashir – a centrist party – in 2025. He has projected an image of a political outsider, soldier and security expert whose humble background and family sacrifices contrast those of Netanyahu’s, Reuters reported.
Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, whose alliance ousted Netanyahu in a 2021 election, are also believed to be in the race for Israel’s top office. The two are contesting the polls under a joint name, ‘Together’ (B’Yachad). Another face is Avigdor Lieberman, Israel’s former defence minister and a former Netanyahu ally, who has become one of the sharpest critics of the incumbent PM.
Additionally, four parties largely representing the 20% Arab minority – Hadash, Taal, Raam and Balad – could also hold the balance of power after the elections, Reuters reported. However, most Jewish-led parties, including those in the opposition, have refused to join forces with the Arab parties.
Netanyahu’s rivals’ goal in this election is to turn their numerical strength into a result that would enable them to form a viable coalition.
What polling tracker says
According to Reuters’ election tracker, as of October 23, no candidate has a clear path to victory. Netanyahu’s Likud and Eisenkot’s Yashar were tied at the same number of seats in the polling aggregate. According to the polling average, pro-Netanyahu parties might hold 53 seats, while the anti-Netanyahu bloc is likely to secure 66 seats, 13 more than the former. The uncertainty around smaller parties’ affiliation to either side has also complicated the calculation of a coalition.
Therefore, two tests are a part of the October 27 polls. One, whether Netanyahu can retain sufficient public support and second, whether his rivals can set aside differences and come together to replace him.
The stakes for Israel: What would change?
While a defeat for Netanyahu would mark a historic political event, it would not necessarily mean a change in Israel’s security policy or attitude towards the Palestinians.
Netanyahu vs Eisenkot – policies, stance and more:
For instance, both Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot oppose an independent Palestinian state and take a hawkish stance on Gaza and Hamas, the Palestinian militant group. The key difference between the two lies in their positions on settlements in the occupied West Bank.
On Palestinian statehood, both leaders believe Israel must retain ultimate security control over the entire territory between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River. However, they differ in their emphasis on settlements. Eisenkot’s stance on settlement expansion could help preserve areas where Palestinians exercise civil self-rule. In contrast, Netanyahu’s coalition includes parties that openly call for the complete annexation of occupied Palestinian territory.
In Gaza, both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have said that Israeli troops will not withdraw from the enclave until Hamas is disarmed. They have also warned that Israel is prepared to resume fighting to achieve this goal.
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Three years after the Hamas attack, Israeli forces control around two-thirds of the enclave, Reuters reported. In the remaining area, Hamas continues to exercise control over the Palestinian population.
Eisenkot has described Hamas’s continued rule in Gaza as a profound failure. He has pledged to ensure that the Hamas administration is ousted within 18 months of his taking office, either through military action or a US-brokered peace plan.
In the West Bank, which has witnessed an increase in settler violence, Netanyahu has overseen the rapid expansion of settlements. This includes small outposts in areas designated for the Palestinian Authority’s civil administration, where such settlements are illegal under Israeli law.
Eisenkot, on the other hand, supports settlements in principle but believes they must comply with Israeli law. He has pledged to remove all illegal outposts and prevent settler violence against Palestinians.
Eisenkot has also opposed the Netanyahu government’s development plans for the E1 area, which would bisect the West Bank and sever its connection with East Jerusalem. According to Reuters, opponents of the plan say it would “bury” the possibility of a Palestinian state.
As for their respective coalition partners, Netanyahu’s allies include far-right Jewish leaders such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who support the complete annexation of Palestinian land, Reuters reported.
Eisenkot, meanwhile, is likely to seek support from opposition parties, including several right-wing groups. His potential allies are largely opposed to military service exemptions for religious students. He may also need the support of the Democrats, reportedly the only prominent Jewish-led party in Israel that backs a two-state solution.
However, both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have said they would not form alliances with parties that primarily represent Arab citizens of Israel, who account for about a fifth of the country’s population.
A change in leadership could also affect the debate within Israel over calls for an independent inquiry into the October 7 attack, exemptions from military service and the independence of the judiciary.
The stakes for Netanyahu: A revival or a goodbye?
For Benjamin Netanyahu, the October 27 election is a crucial test of whether he can overcome the fallout from the October 7 attack and the conflicts that followed. A victory would give him a fresh mandate despite the controversies surrounding his leadership.
Yohanan Plesner, president of the non-partisan Israel Democracy Institute (IDI), said the key question was whether Netanyahu could still portray himself as the leader best equipped to handle Israel’s national security and diplomatic challenges, Reuters reported. Referring to reports of the UAE’s warning to Netanyahu before the Hamas attack, Plesner said: “This is a new thing. Netanyahu ran in elections, but never after overseeing such a dramatic security failure. It is in many ways a referendum on the incumbent, his responsibility for the failure, the government’s responsibility and the way they carried out the Israeli response.”
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Public opinion remains divided. The owner of a dog-grooming salon on one of Tel Aviv’s busiest streets told RTE News that Netanyahu “defends Israel the way I want it to be defended”. However, she added that she viewed him as “the best from the worst”.
Another woman, who sells jewellery at Tel Aviv’s central market, said she had had enough of Netanyahu. “I think it’s the worst government we ever had. I think he’s responsible, and he needs to go,” she said.
Despite the criticism, Netanyahu is relying on his familiar playbook, presenting himself as the only leader capable of keeping Israel safe. He approaches every election as though he is going to lose, and that is one reason he often wins even when the odds appear to be against him, Reuters reported, citing a source close to the prime minister.
Amotz Asa-El, a political analyst at the Shalom Hartman Institute, said Netanyahu’s strategy appeared to be to secure enough support to prevent the formation of an alternative government, leaving the political deadlock unresolved and paving the way for another election, Reuters reported.
In a recent interview with AFP, Netanyahu said he was comfortable making unpopular decisions if he believed they were right, adding that he felt little need to win the media’s approval.
“I would rather get a bad editorial than a positive obituary,” Netanyahu said.
(with inputs from AFP, Reuters)