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Israel exit polls put Netanyahu-led bloc ahead as Opposition trails, but no clear majority

Exit polls show Netanyahu-led bloc is projected to win 52 seats. Meanwhile, Eisenkot- led bloc is expected to win 49 seats.

Published on: Oct 28, 2026, 09:05:50 IST
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Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is locked in a tight electoral contest with opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot in the country’s first election since the October 7 Hamas attacks. Exit poll projections suggest a neck-and-neck contest, setting the stage for tense coalition negotiations to determine who will form the next government.

Supporters of former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, react following national election exit polls at his party headquarters in Tel Aviv, Israel. (REUTERS)
Supporters of former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, react following national election exit polls at his party headquarters in Tel Aviv, Israel. (REUTERS)

Exit polls show Netanyahu’s Likud in the lead with 27 projected seats. Along with the rest of his bloc, he is projected to win 52 seats. The main opposition party, Eisenkot’s Yashar, is trailing with 21 projected seats, while his bloc is expected to win 49 seats overall. Follow LIVE updates on Israel elections

However, according to partial results, with 25.2% of votes counted at 7:30am IST, the Central Elections Committee projected the pro-Netanyahu bloc bagging 63 seats and the anti-Netanyahu bloc 49. The remaining eight seats are held by the nonaligned Joint List of Arab factions, according to the Times of Israel.

Deep Dive

How many seats are needed to form a government in Israel?

A party bloc needs 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats to secure a majority and form a government. Exit-poll projections put both major blocs below that threshold.

Why did Israel’s exit polls show no clear election winner?

Although projections differed on which bloc was ahead, neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor Eisenkot’s opposition bloc was shown with the 61 seats needed for a majority. The figures were projections, and counting was still underway.

Could Arab parties decide who forms Israel’s next government?

Yes. The Joint List and Ra’am were projected to win significant representation, and their support could matter in coalition negotiations. Both said they would support Eisenkot on some level, while Netanyahu ruled out relying on Arab parties.
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The results are partial and will change as counting continues.

Arab voter participation appeared to rise significantly compared with previous elections, CNN reported.

Netanyahu, Eisenkot vow to form govt

In his first remarks after the exit poll projections, Netanyahu said the results showed his bloc retained the support of a “decisive majority among the Zionist and Jewish public” and vowed to form a new government, even as his coalition appeared to fall short of a parliamentary majority.

He added that no leader should govern with the support of Israeli Arab parties, which has made significant gains.

"We must put in place a strong government of the right," Netanyahu told cheering supporters. The Jewish and Zionist majority must unite," he said. "It is out of the question to have a government that is backed by Arab parties,” he said, according to AFP.

Also Read: In pitch for alliance, Netanyahu hails ‘once-in-a-lifetime historic opportunity’ to eliminate Iranian threat with Trump's help

He concluded his speech by saying “Israel will stay forever”.

“I would like to say to all the citizens of Israel. Yes, we were able to confront and defeat our enemies and we can do the same in the future. We are the lions. The roaring lions. And those who did not hear Israel’s voice in the past will hear it, and it doesn’t lie.”

Meanwhile, Eisenkot, speaking to his own supporters in Tel Aviv, issued a veiled warning to Netanyahu.

"Netanyahu, don't you dare use Israel's security for your political needs," Eisenkot said.

Addressing Israel's security establishment, Eisenkot said that they served the state and not Netanyahu, calling him "a caretaker prime minister, without a mandate or the people's trust".

First elections after Oct 7 attacks

While the final results are expected to be announced on October 30, Netanyahu faces a tough challenge in the first election since the 2023 Hamas attacks. He has faced scrutiny from the opposition over security failures, his policies towards Palestinians and Israel’s growing international isolation.

Netanyahu has opposed an investigation into the October 7 attacks and blamed the military for the security failures that day. His opponents, however, say he must be held accountable for the security failures that occurred under his leadership and have called for a commission of inquiry.

Israel’s electoral system requires parties to cross a 3.25% vote threshold to enter the Knesset. According to current projections, Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to collapse from 68 seats in the Knesset to 52, CNN reported, citing the exit poll from Channel 12 News.

 
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Karishma Ayaldasani

Karishma Ayaldasani is a Senior Content Producer at Hindustan Times, based in New Delhi, where she works with the digital team on fast-moving breaking stories from India and around the world. She enjoys covering national and global news, focusing on delivering updates quickly and clearly so readers can make sense of what’s happening as it unfolds. Comfortable in high-pressure newsroom settings, she regularly contributes to live blogs, explainers and real-time coverage. Before joining Hindustan Times, she was part of the digital team at The Indian Express, worked with the social media team at Firstpost, and spent time as a creative strategist at Clematis Advertising. Outside of work, she likes exploring different art forms and unwinds with music. With over three years of experience in fast-paced newsrooms, she brings curiosity, clarity and consistency to her work.

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