Over two-third of Canadian voters want Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to resign and nearly three-fifth expect Federal elections to be held next year, even though they are only scheduled for October 2025.
These were among the result of a poll by the agency Ipsos conducted for the outlet Global News and released on Sunday.
While the large majority, 59 per cent expect polls next year, 69 per cent want Trudeau to leave office before the next Federal elections. But, 63 per cent also don’t expect him to actually do so.
Trudeau himself has made it clear he isn’t going anywhere. In a yearend interview with the agency Canadian Press last week, he said, “”You can’t believe all the things that I believe and not want to be there to do this fight.”
There are also remain the questions of whether his exit will help the ruling Liberal Party regain traction, after trailing the opposition Conservatives by a double digit margin in recent weeks.
Shachi Kurl, president of the non-partisan polling agency Angus Reid Institute or ARI said, “The data shows the potential for a Liberal rebound if Trudeau goes – but among past Liberal voters. If he goes, it leaves very little room for a new leader to brand and establish themselves. Liberal strategists will have to weigh a departure against the risk of a new leader not being able to attract votes back.”
{{/usCountry}}Shachi Kurl, president of the non-partisan polling agency Angus Reid Institute or ARI said, “The data shows the potential for a Liberal rebound if Trudeau goes – but among past Liberal voters. If he goes, it leaves very little room for a new leader to brand and establish themselves. Liberal strategists will have to weigh a departure against the risk of a new leader not being able to attract votes back.”
{{/usCountry}}Names of plenty of contenders have been speculated about in Canadian media: Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, as well as Cabinet ministers Mélanie Joly, François-Philippe Champagne and Indo-Canadian Anita Anand. There’s also Mark Carney, who has been Governor of both the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada.
University of Toronto political scientist Andrew McDougall didn’t believe Trudeau is interested in leaving. “His defenders say that although there are some challenges in the polls, he’s still the greatest asset and that it’s not exactly clear who else would take over or if they would do better under any other leader.”
But the reality could also be that a change at the top may not alter the ruling party’s fortunes. As McDougall explained, “I think there’s an argument that even if he is replaced, people may just be sick of the Liberals, or as much as they are of the Trudeau brand. So, whether or not a new leader is going to change that dynamic, I don’t think that’s guaranteed at all.”