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Could Super El Niño make food more expensive worldwide? Global supply shock explained
A developing Super El Niño event may strain global food supply and raise prices until 2028.
A potentially powerful Super El Niño weather event developing this year could put pressure on global food supplies and push prices higher, economists have warned, with the effects potentially lasting until 2028.
The climate phenomenon comes at a time when food markets are already facing pressure from geopolitical tensions, including disruptions linked to the Iran war. Analysts have warned that extreme weather and existing supply challenges could combine to create a fresh inflation shock for households worldwide.
What is Super El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that develops when changes in Pacific Ocean wind patterns allow warmer-than-usual waters to spread across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), warming conditions have already begun developing in the Pacific, with a 63% chance that sea surface temperatures could exceed 2 degrees Celsius above normal later this year.
The potential strength of the 2026-27 event has led some experts to refer to it informally as a “Super El Niño” or “Godzilla El Niño”.
A strong El Niño can influence rainfall and temperatures across continents, increasing the risk of droughts, floods and storms that can disrupt agricultural production.
How could Super El Niño affect food prices?
Economists warn, as per The Guardian, that a severe El Niño could create disruptions across major agricultural regions, affecting the supply of essential commodities.
Goldman Sachs analysts estimated that the strength of the weather event could cause a 15.8% increase in global food commodity prices. The analysts also projected that food prices in the eurozone could rise by about 1.3%.
However, the impact may not be immediate. Goldman Sachs said the full effects could take until the second half of 2028 to be reflected because weather disruptions affect crops at different stages of planting, growth and harvesting.
“El Niño does not affect agriculture uniformly. It reshapes global rainfall and temperature patterns, creating regional winners and losers,” analysts at UBS said, noting that some regions could benefit from favorable conditions while others face losses.
Which foods could become costlier?
Experts have warned that several major agricultural commodities could be affected, including rice, wheat, sugar, coffee, cocoa and palm oil.
Goldman Sachs analysts said El Niño had already started affecting crop conditions in some regions, including India, where weaker rainfall in certain areas could affect supplies of wheat, rice and sugar cane.
Drier conditions linked to El Niño typically affect parts of southern Africa and northern South America, while flooding risks increase in countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.
In Southeast Asia, drought conditions could impact palm oil production, a key ingredient used in many processed foods. Coffee and cocoa supplies could also be affected by changing weather patterns.
Why could the impact last until 2028?
The effects of extreme weather do not immediately appear on supermarket shelves. Analysts said the timing depends on crop cycles, supply chains, transportation networks and government responses.
Climate-risk analytics firm Risilience estimated that an extreme El Niño scenario could reduce global agricultural production by 14.3%, representing around $342 billion in lost output.
The company warned that price shocks could range between 10% and 50% across major commodities, while the most vulnerable crops, including rice, palm oil and coffee, could see increases of 50% to 100% or more.
