Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s divorce from State Senator Angela Paxton, filed this week on ‘biblical grounds’ and ‘recent discoveries’, has brought up doubts about his 2026 Senate campaign against John Cornyn. The divorce, announced amid a heated Republican primary, might put Paxton on the backseat against Cornyn and potential Democratic contenders like Jasmine Crockett.
“Today, after 38 years of marriage, I filed for divorce on biblical grounds,” Angela Paxton said on X, platform formerly knowna as Twitter. “I believe marriage is a sacred covenant and I have earnestly pursued reconciliation. But in light of recent discoveries, I do not believe that it honors God or is loving to myself, my children, or Ken to remain in the marriage.”
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“I move forward with complete confidence that God is always working everything together for the good of those who love Him and who are called according to His purpose,” she added.
Will the divorce announcement hurt Ken Paxton's Senate chances?
A poll released in May showed Paxton with a commanding lead over incumbent Sen John Cornyn in either a two-person race or a three-person race in next year’s Republican primary. However, his lead in the poll shrunk dramatically against potential Democratic rivals.
{{/usCountry}}A poll released in May showed Paxton with a commanding lead over incumbent Sen John Cornyn in either a two-person race or a three-person race in next year’s Republican primary. However, his lead in the poll shrunk dramatically against potential Democratic rivals.
{{/usCountry}}The poll from Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center showed the Texas AG leading his primary opponent by 9 percentage points.
“Right now, if it's a head-to-head race between Paxton and Cornyn, Paxton is a very strong favorite, and it's tough to see how, absent, say, a Trump endorsement of Cornyn, Cornyn could effectively flip the table on Paxton,” Mark Jones, political science fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute and co-author of the survey with TSU's Michael O Adams, said.
A Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) poll (April 27–May 1, 2025) had Paxton ahead 56% to 40%, or 44% to 34% with Hunt at 19%.
A Houston Chronicle poll (mid-April 2025) showed Paxton leading by 17 points (50% to 33%), with a Democratic poll showing a 20-point lead.
Jasmine Crockett has not announced a 2026 Senate run, and no polls directly test her against Paxton or Cornyn.
Polls show Paxton vulnerable against Colin Allred, a likely Democratic contender. A TSU poll has Allred leading Paxton 52% to 37%, while Cornyn leads Allred by 6 points.