A New Hampshire primary election poll released on Monday shows that former President Donald Trump is leading by a significant margin. The poll also indicates that more independent voters intend to cast ballots on Tuesday.
Trump's popularity rose to 52% in the Monmouth University/Washington Post poll of 712 New Hampshire voters who could vote in the GOP primary, from 46% in the previous survey carried out in November 2023.
According to the poll conducted from January 16 to 20, the current primary is less of an interactive event than it was in 2016.
While 52% of prospective voters say they will vote for Trump in Tuesday's Republican primary, 34% say they would vote for former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. Though Haley's percentage of the vote has risen by 16 points since November, Trump's lead has remained constant. His support has actually increased since the decline as well—it is now up 6 points from 46%. With a support percentage of 8%, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is well behind the leaders and essentially steady from 7% in November.
Also Read: ‘She’s not of that caliber': Trump says Nikki Haley won't be his VP pick
{{/usCountry}}Also Read: ‘She’s not of that caliber': Trump says Nikki Haley won't be his VP pick
{{/usCountry}}The percentage of registered independent voters who indicate they intend to cast a Republican ballot increased from 52% in November to 63% in January. Notably for Haley, a third of those independent voters claim to have supported Democratic Presidential nominee Joe Biden in the 2020 contest.
Despite Haley's larger lead among these independent voters, the poll indicates that even a rise in the number of independent votes is not likely to be enough to narrow the gap with Trump. The former president has the backing of 38% of independent voters, while Haley has 48% of them.
The question arises here is that why the race for the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary is crucial. The reason is -- “Iowa picks corn; New Hampshire picks presidents,” asserted former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu.
Also Read: Donald Trump's 2024 VP race turns into an open audition in New Hampshire
Voters tend to trust Trump over Haley over broad range of issues: Poll
New Hampshire potential Republican primary voters generally have more faith in Trump than in Haley on an extensive range of issues. The former president excels in immigration policy; 62% of respondents have more confidence in him to handle this matter than in Haley (26%).
Regarding who voters trust more to manage abortion policy, the split is slightly wider -- 40% of voters trust Trump, 29% trust Haley, and 22% trust both equally.
If Trump emerge victorious, as the polls indicate, he will be positioned to secure the Republican nominee without facing a significant challenge.
After his astounding Iowa caucuses win, Trump is also hoping for another victory in New Hampshire, the state that initially helped him clinch the GOP nominee in 2016.
In a December 2023 CBS poll conducted in New Hampshire, Trump maintained a double-digit lead against Haley, with 44% of probable GOP primary voters supporting him. But that survey was conducted before the withdrawal of Ron DeSantis, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
What's next after New Hampshire?
After New Hampshire, the focus is going to shift on Nevada, which will hold state-run primary on February 6 and a party caucus on February 8.
Delegates will be chosen by the party based on the caucus. Haley won't be on the ballot, but Trump will be there. Trump is not going to be on the primary ballot, but Haley is. The contenders have not made Nevada a priority and there has been just roughly $1 million spent till now.
However, in New Hampshire, $77.5 million has been spent on campaign ads since the beginning of last year, according to data compiled by the ad-tracking firm AdImpact and analysed by NPR.
Haley and her supporters have been the biggest spenders. Team Haley has spent $30.9 million, which is doubled than Trump and his allies as they have poured in $15.7 million.