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Note ban to be positive for India

business Updated: Nov 17, 2016 11:49 IST
Nachiket Kelkar

India’s equity markets have seen a sharp correction (Sensex down by over 1,200 points in the past three sessions) amid concerns about of the ban on ₹500, ₹1,000 currency notes.

Foreign institutional investors have pulled out nearly₹6,000 crore from India’s equity markets in the last four trading sessions, NSDL data shows. Geoffrey Dennis, head of global emerging markets strategy at UBS Investment Bank, believes the sell-off was extreme and markets will begin to settle down.

He still remains positive on India among emerging markets and feels the currency demonetisation will have long-term positive impact on the economy. Excerpts from the interview:

Q. How does India look now in the emerging market basket, particularly after the US elections and the currency demonetisation in country?

India has had a double whammy. We are overweight on India. The reason for that is, notwithstanding what is happening in the short-term and the risk to growth from the withdrawal of bank notes, it is still without question the best growth story in the emerging markets.

Q. The demonetisation is expected to hit some sectors, like consumption. Could that have a wider impact on the economy in the short term?

I think, the impact so far has perhaps been more disruptive than the government had anticipated. If the disruption lasts for several more weeks, you could clearly see some downside risks to economic growth numbers through weaker consumer spending.