US elections: Predictions and politics

On a visit to the Smithsonian’s National Museum of Asian Art, we uncover an ancient item of divination that was used to predict the future of powerful rulers

With less than two weeks left for the US presidential elections, the polls are being closely tracked. Currently, the two candidates — Democrat Kamala Harris, and Republican Donald Trump —are locked in a tight contest, with Harris gaining a small lead. On a recent visit to the capital city of Washington, D.C., I spoke to a few residents and most people from my informal research sample believe that Harris will win. “Kamala comes from a middle-class background and understands the

A quirky tourist attraction in D.C — the Barbie Pond — predicts a clean sweep for Harris. (Courtesy: Barbie Pond on Avenue Q )

The Peacock Room (1887), by James McNeill Whistler and Thomas Jeckyll.

Speculation is rife, as are the many predictions from astrologers, tarot card readers, and crystal ball gazers. Relying upon different methods of divination to predict the political future, isn’t a new phenomenon, as proven by ancient artefacts at the Smithsonian National Museum of Asian Art. One such curious object, housed in this popular DC museum, is the bone oracle dating back over 3,000 years, to the Chinese Shang Dynasty.

Fragments of the prized oracle were last displayed at this museum in April 2024, as part of the Anyang: China’s Ancient City of Kings Exhibit (which ran from February 25, 2023–April 28, 2024). The exhibit focused on the rich culture of the late Shang dynasty when the northern Henan province - now referred to as Anyang - was the capital of the successful empire.

“The museum collections include roughly three dozen Chinese oracle bone fragments, mostly scapulae (or shoulder blade) from cattle or oxen, but a few represent portions of the bottom shell (plastron) of turtles,” says Keith Wilson, the curator of Ancient Chinese Art at the Smithsonian National Museum of Ancient Asian Art.

While the fragments are not currently on display, you can check them out, anytime and from anywhere, in the form of an interactive 3D exhibit on the museum’s webpage, where the plastron, or turtle shell, is featured. Why shells? “We don’t know why these were the favoured medium for the oracle in ancient China,” admits Wilson.

Interestingly, the use of shells in the divination arts has also been seen in India. “The ‘Kavadi Prasnam’, is an ancient form of astrology that originated in South India,” says Ramamirtham Gurukkal, an astrologer based in Nagapattinam, Tamil Nadu. (Kavadi in Malayalam refers to cowrie shells). This form of astrology dates back several centuries yet still remains popular in Kerala as well as in Tamil Nadu, the state to which Kamala Harris traces her maternal roots. “Shells were used in ancient India because they represent the water element of nature,” says Gurukkal. He explains that since 71% of the Earth’s surface is water, shells are believed to have the ability to connect with subtle energies, making them an ideal medium for divination.

The cowrie shells are chosen with great care. They are cleaned and then charged by means of rituals and prayers. A combination of interpreting omens, study of astronomy and mathematical calculations are required to make predictions.

A similar process was seen in the Shang Dynasty, with regard to the bone oracle. Utmost attention was paid to the sourcing of shells; the shells were then cleaned and polished. Next, expert ritualists bore hollows into the back (or underside) of the shell. To make a reading, a hot poker was applied into the hollow, causing the bone to crack and develop lines that were visible on the front of the shell. The diviner then interpreted the language of the crack, answering a question that the visitor had on their mind.

“The questions and interpretations of the responses were frequently recorded on the surface of the bones and shells,” explains Wilson. The queries centred around military endeavours and the fortunes of the royal family.

The Smithsonian also has evidence that a bone oracle was specially prepared to predict the success of the marriage between King Wu Ding and Fu Hao. An elaborate ceremony was held and the ritualist interpreted the cracks on the shell as a sign that the ancestors did not approve of the alliance. But Princess Fu Hao didn’t agree with the interpretation and offered another reading of the cracks. She emerged as the Queen.

The use of divination is seen even in modern American political history. The astrological leanings of the Reagan’s have been documented and it has been widely accepted that Nancy Reagan used the services of a trusted astrologer to make scheduling decisions for the then sitting President.

Leaving astrology behind, my poll-of-sorts continues at another D.C Museum — the National Portrait Gallery — which features larger-than-life portraits of former US presidents. Here, I overheard a stranger who encapsulated the sentiments of many voters, “I would like to see a woman featured among these men.” But is it written in the stars? We’ll soon find out on 5th November.