Anthropic is not a public company yet, but investors are already betting on its IPO. Prediction markets show growing expectations that the AI company could challenge Elon Musk’s SpaceX for the title of the largest IPO of 2026, according to Polymarket data.
Anthropic is quickly closing the gap with SpaceX. The prediction market odds have moved closer in Anthropic’s favor as the company’s revenue growth continues to accelerate, according to Polymarket data. Anthropic could potentially go public as early as the fourth quarter of 2026. The company’s rising revenue has increased expectations that it could make its stock market debut later this year, Yahoo Finance reported.
Anthropic revenue jumps
Anthropic’s annualized revenue is on track to cross $65 billion in 2026. That would mark a major jump from the roughly $47 billion annualized revenue pace reported in May, Bloomberg reported late Monday. The sharp rise in revenue is one reason investors are watching Anthropic’s IPO closely. A faster-growing business could support a much higher valuation when the company eventually sells shares to the public.
Anthropic is currently valued at around $1 trillion in private markets. Yahoo Finance private markets data puts the company’s valuation at roughly that level. Anthropic’s valuation is already higher than OpenAI’s. OpenAI, another major player in the AI race, is currently valued at about $894 billion.
OpenAI IPO plans
{{/usCountry}}Anthropic is currently valued at around $1 trillion in private markets. Yahoo Finance private markets data puts the company’s valuation at roughly that level. Anthropic’s valuation is already higher than OpenAI’s. OpenAI, another major player in the AI race, is currently valued at about $894 billion.
OpenAI IPO plans
{{/usCountry}}OpenAI could also potentially go public later this year. However, prediction market data from Polymarket does not currently show OpenAI as a major contender for the largest IPO of 2026. For now, SpaceX remains the clear leader. Elon Musk’s space company currently holds the title of the biggest IPO of the year after its massive public offering.
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 11. The company offered 555.6 million shares in the deal, giving SpaceX an initial valuation of about $1.78 trillion. SpaceX then made its Nasdaq debut on June 12. The stock began trading around midday at roughly $150 per share, according to Yahoo Finance.
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SpaceX stock debut
Demand for SpaceX shares was extremely strong on its first trading day. Both institutional and retail investors bought into the stock, helping push the share price higher during the session. SpaceX closed its first day at $160.95 per share. That represented a 19.2% gain from its $135 IPO price, immediately making the offering one of the biggest market debuts of the year.
The first-day rally pushed SpaceX’s market value to about $2.1 trillion. The huge valuation showed the level of investor interest surrounding Musk’s company. But SpaceX’s stock did not continue rising in a straight line. Shares climbed to around $225 a few weeks after the IPO, before falling sharply.
SpaceX shares later dropped to around $104. Investors became concerned about upcoming lockup expirations and the company’s plans for capital spending. The sharp swings have made SpaceX a highly volatile stock. Investors are watching the company closely because its valuation is already enormous, while expectations for its future growth remain high.
SpaceX price outlook
Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, remains bullish on SpaceX in the long term. “In the end, betting against Elon Musk has been a fool's errand time and time again,” Essaye said on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid. Essaye said he remains a long-term bull on SpaceX. At the same time, he warned investors to expect significant short-term volatility because the stock is likely to remain “wild,” he said.
SpaceX has since recovered from its post-IPO lows. The stock has rallied back to around $146 per share, according to Yahoo Finance. At that price, SpaceX has a market value of about $1.93 trillion. That keeps the company well ahead of Anthropic’s current private-market valuation of around $1 trillion.
Anthropic vs SpaceX
Anthropic therefore has a major gap to close if it wants the biggest IPO crown. Its current private valuation is roughly half of SpaceX’s current market value, meaning a successful IPO would likely need to bring in a very large valuation.
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The key question is how much Anthropic could be worth when it goes public. Its rapidly growing revenue could help the company command a much higher valuation than its current private-market figure.
Biggest IPO of 2026
The AI boom could also work in Anthropic’s favor. Investors have been putting huge amounts of money into companies linked to artificial intelligence, making Anthropic one of the most closely watched potential IPO candidates.
SpaceX still has the advantage for now. Its $1.78 trillion IPO valuation and later rise in market value give it a strong lead in the race for the biggest public offering of 2026. But Anthropic is becoming a serious challenger. Its expected fourth-quarter debut, rapidly rising annualized revenue and roughly $1 trillion private valuation have pushed it much closer to SpaceX in prediction markets.
The race could become even more interesting if Anthropic officially announces an IPO. Until the company files and sets the terms of a public offering, its final IPO valuation remains uncertain. For now, the prediction markets are pointing to a two-company race. SpaceX remains the leader, while Anthropic is gaining ground quickly as investors bet on the possibility of a huge AI IPO later this year.
If Anthropic’s valuation jumps sharply at the time of its IPO, it could potentially overtake SpaceX. That would make Anthropic’s debut one of the biggest — and potentially the biggest — IPO of 2026. The final winner will depend on the size and valuation of Anthropic’s offering. Until then, SpaceX holds the crown, but Anthropic is increasingly looking like its biggest threat for the largest IPO of 2026.