OPEC+ decided to keep its oil production policy unchanged for October at a meeting on Sunday. The decision comes as the group faces a highly uncertain oil market because the Iran war is disrupting crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ said it needs to agree on new production quotas before deciding its next steps.
The meeting was attended by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman. These seven countries have been taking part in OPEC+’s monthly production decisions in recent years. The United Arab Emirates was also part of these monthly decisions until it left OPEC in May. The seven countries are scheduled to meet again on October 4.
Iran war is making OPEC+ less powerful
The main problem for OPEC+ is that the Iran conflict is affecting the physical flow of oil, especially through the Strait of Hormuz. This limits how much the producer group can influence global oil prices and its market share.
“OPEC+ currently has very limited power over the physical oil market,” Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy said. Leon said OPEC+ can change production targets on paper, but it cannot guarantee that the additional oil will actually be produced or reach buyers.
In August, OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production for September. That increase completed a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day production cut that was first agreed in 2023. Even after agreeing to raise production, OPEC+ countries are still producing well below their official targets, largely because the war is disrupting oil supplies. This means the group has less ability to quickly add large amounts of oil to the global market.
Another round of production cuts is still in place
OPEC+ has another layer of production cuts covering most members of the 21-country group. These cuts are currently scheduled to remain in place until the end of 2026. Before OPEC+ decides how to remove these cuts, it needs to review how much oil each member can actually produce. The review will help the group set 2027 production baselines, which will then be used to calculate individual production quotas.
Jorge Leon said the focus is shifting away from monthly production changes and towards the much bigger question of 2027 oil production. OPEC+ is expected to discuss production capacity and new baselines later in 2026. Because of this, the group could pause further production increases in the fourth quarter, according to sources cited earlier by Reuters. Sunday's statement did not announce any policy changes beyond October.
Oil prices have jumped sharply because of the Iran conflict
Oil prices gained more than 7% over the week as the US and Iran resumed military exchanges in the seventh month of their conflict, CNBC reported. The conflict has increased concerns about oil supplies and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. US diesel prices also reached a record high, adding to concerns about rising fuel costs.
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Brent is getting close to $100
Brent crude futures rose 76 cents to close at $96.28 a barrel on Friday. Brent was up nearly 8% for the week, putting the global oil benchmark close to the $100-a-barrel level. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 18 cents to settle at $91.48 a barrel. WTI gained almost 10% during the week.
Why OPEC+ did not simply increase output
OPEC+ has already increased production after rolling back part of its earlier cuts, but the Iran war has made it harder for extra barrels to actually reach the market. With the Strait of Hormuz facing disruption, changing production targets alone may not solve the supply problem. The group therefore kept its October policy unchanged while it prepared for the larger discussion about production quotas and capacity for 2027.
What happens next
OPEC+’s seven-member group will meet again on October 4. The immediate focus will remain on the Iran conflict, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and whether production increases can actually reach the market.
The bigger decision will be how OPEC+ handles its remaining production cuts and sets 2027 output quotas. For now, with Brent already at $96.28 a barrel, continued disruption from the Iran war could keep pressure on oil prices and push Brent closer to $100.